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PlutoniumKun's avatar

I think there are definitely cycles inbuilt into political systems, as with any organization. You don't have to be a Marxist to accept that successful systems can have their own doom built into their successful structures. You can of course see this in a variety of historical precedents, such as the decay that seems to characterize most later empires, or the middle income trap that ensnares so many fast growing 'catch up economies - and it remains to be seen if China can escape that particular problem.

One thing, of course about the US and UK in particular, but also Germany and France, is that they've often shown a remarkable ability to rebound after apparent calamities. All those countries have been written off at one time or another, or in the case of Germany, bounced back from a genuine near extinction event. The US and UK systems have shown remarkable resilience for a couple of centuries or more. So I wouldn't write any of them off.

Writing from a small by-standing country, Ireland, some of the problems are also apparent, if not all that dangerous yet. A PM like Leo Varadkar definitely falls into the pattern of a hollow shell politician rising into power without any apparent idea of what to do with that power or how to wield it. But other cannier politicians are around who fall into older molds (for good or ill). The problem with the US and Europe seems to be that the cycle is going one way, but any countervailing forces aren't there. History tells us that when brakes don't apply to failing systems, then they come to a stop the hard way - usually by running into a cliff.

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Stephen T Johnson's avatar

what rough beast, its' time come at last, slouches towards Bethlehem, waiting to be born?

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