My memory of the era has faded but, as I recall, the reformist, UN-recognized Government of Afghanistan invited the USSR to assist in modernizing the country and the USSR did so, and then left in good order.
The actual Soviet INVASION occurred during the Carter administration after the CIA set up and accomplished their fundamentalist Muslim based coup d'etat against the (excessively modernizing in their view) Afghanni government which had worked with USSR on infrastructure development, with the explicit intent of drawing the USSR into "their own Vietnam". These assholes BRAGGED about causing the USSR:Afghan war and claimed it was their clever actions which destroyed the USSR.
One can only marvel at the lack of sane work with Ukrainian political forces on the part of the Kremlin during the 30 years of Ukraine's existence. When the open confrontation between the Donetsk and Lviv groups began, the Kremlin could only give money or military support to one of the parties. But if you look at Ukraine as an American puppet that does not make decisions on its own, then what is the point of negotiating with local players if you have to go to Washington.
How did this article end without any reference to Israel ?
"Indeed, the manipulation of large nations by small nations for their benefit is one of the least-studied parts of international politics, mainly because it appears counter-intuitive"
I suspect there is some art at work here on Aurelien's part -- and you came up with the (I think frankly obvious) example on your own anyway, didn't you? I don't think this is an accident ...
Author not required to wave a red flag in Mossad's face and simultaneously offer whatever is left of Unit 8200 a free shot at one of their very favoritest attack surfaces, anyone who can allow their mind to go there already went.
I concur. True to form, our host avoids describing the relationship between israel and the Western goverments, especiallythose of the USA, UK, France and Germany-the real elephant in the room. Given that these governments routinely vote against the best interests of their own people to support the "shitty little country" infecting MENA, deny and/or justify genocide just for this one entity, and send "envoys for peace" who served in the IDF and/or awoved zionists, and destroy anyone who speaks against the ziocons, who really has the agency in this set of relationships?
1. The founding of the Viet Minh is most instructive here, with wheels turning inside of wheels. The Cliff's Notes version is that the Viet Minh didn't want to be communists at all, they respected and admired the United States, which, however, could not afford to cheeze off its French and British vassals.
2. "They had no ability to take the pulse of the Street, *not any apparent interest in doing so*, and, like other western governments, were completely ignorant about the religious dimension to the protests." (emphasis added)
The emphasized text "not any apparent interest in doing so" is the money quote in that sentence.
Re: Viet Minh and their initial political desires?
Ho Chi Minh's February 28th 1946 telegram to President Truman is instructive:
----------
President Ho Chi Minh Vietnam Democratic Republic Hanoi
To the President of the United States of America Washington D.C.
On behalf of Vietnam government and people I beg to inform you that in course of conversations between Vietnam government and French representatives the latter require the secession of Cochinchina and the return of French troops in Hanoi stop meanwhile French population and troops are making active preparations for a coup de main in Hanoi and for military aggression stop I therefore most earnestly appeal to you personally and to the American people to interfere urgently in support of our independence and help making the negotiations more in keeping with the principles of the Atlantic and San Francisco charters
The above reminds me of how manipulative kids in some of my many schools, would influence large stupid lumps who were not necessarily natural bullies in order to gain power over the playground.
"So there is often a competition, not to explain a problem as such, but rather to fit it into one of a series of competing frameworks and models, which generate an analysis and a course of action which suits the objectives of the organisation, or strengthens its position in the political market."
Thank you again for adding depth. It is not that I am now or have been slavishly devote to the Great Power dominance narrative, but neither have I been as clear eyed and logical as you are. The most striking case in the present is the manipulation of the United States by Israel, a manipulative client state masquerading as an ally. Very often, just when I think I have understood a situation actions and relationships of which I had not considered important or of which I had been unaware will upend my supposed understanding. In the case of Southwest Asia, I find it best to await events as the complexities, I suspect, confound even the best informed observer.
I agree with this "Human beings can only tolerate a certain degree of complexity.". However I'm of the opinion our complexity limitations do not stop us from making simple things, complicated. There are a number of reasons, here are a couple.
People need to have a sense of worth. Many think their activities/work needs to be perceived as complicated to justify the activity/job. This is also true in government. Simple situations don't justify growing salaries and departments; always seeming to be necessary.
Re: The attempts of smaller nations to influence "great powers" to advance their own interests?
Ho Chi Minh's February 28th 1946 telegram to President Truman is instructive. I wonder how much cheaper it would have been for all involved in the end if Truman had let uncle Ho twist his arm just a bit and told the French NO.
----------
President Ho Chi Minh Vietnam Democratic Republic Hanoi
To the President of the United States of America Washington D.C.
On behalf of Vietnam government and people I beg to inform you that in course of conversations between Vietnam government and French representatives the latter require the secession of Cochinchina and the return of French troops in Hanoi stop meanwhile French population and troops are making active preparations for a coup de main in Hanoi and for military aggression stop I therefore most earnestly appeal to you personally and to the American people to interfere urgently in support of our independence and help making the negotiations more in keeping with the principles of the Atlantic and San Francisco charters
Have had long conference with Prime Minister, Ho Chi Min and he impresses me as sensible, well balanced, politically minded individual. His demands are few and simple namely limited independence, liberation from French rule, right to live as free people in family of nations and lastly right to deal directly with outside world.
He stated that for many years missionary work of propaganda within party, training of youth and preparation for this day has made them ready not necessarily for complete independence but at least the privilege of dying for their ideals. From that I have been these people mean business and am afraid that French will have to deal with them. For that matter will all have to deal with them. French and beginning to recognize this fact and are going to be big about it by offering Viet Minh terms for their independence. On other hand Vietnam is smart enough to see through Machiavellian attitude French here especially Sainteny and have absolutely refused to deal with him.
Annamese are in unique advantage our position in as much as Japs have given them independence so they consider themselves free of any sovereign power and this includes French who have been hiding behind Jap skirts, vichy tactics and passing themselves off as friends of Americans. On whole Viet Minh has full control of situation not only in hands (unreadable) whole of 3 provinces. Their organization is well knit, program clear and their demands on outside world few. They ask they be permitted travel particularly to America particularly for education purposes and that America send technical experts to help them establish those few industries Indochina is capable of exploiting. Prime Minister particularly asked me that American exercise some control over Chinese occupation forces and that Chinese purchase materials and food rather than requisitioning it during occupation period. Furthermore he pointed out and this I have confirmed from other sources Jap and French that due to flood this year famine is imminent and should Chinese depended on Indochinese for their subsistence during occupation period they will all starve plus creating situation where Annamese will be forced to wage war upon Chinese to protect his livelihood and family.
Annamese celebrating Annamese independence day tomorrow with high solemn mass by Catholics and special ritual by Buddhists.
Re: The USSR invasion of Afghanistan & US conservative's analysis of USSR motive?
(Quote)
"But the West, stuck in its great power mentality, and in the middle of a transition to much tougher anti-Communist line, opted to treat the invasion as a simple expansionist enterprise, which those on the political Right had always warned against. Indeed, many figures on the Right argued gleefully that their worst fears had been confirmed, and that the next target would be Pakistan or Saudi Arabia."
----------
Despite the Carter & later, Reagan administration "authorized version" of events, that the evil commie Russians were expanding their iron fisted dictatorship, intent upon conquering all of western Asia, then the whole world? The State Department and CIA knew better, as they had selected a number of Islamic fundamentalists and local tribal/wannabe war lord power seekers to finance and TRIGGERED the coup against the (too USSR friendly) Afghan government.
Before that coup, the old king's ministries were modernizing Afghanistan too quickly for the sensibilities of some Saudi financed Wahabi fundamentalist trained mullahs and their students (AKA "Taliban"). They were also exercising a bit too much centralized control for the tastes of some ethnic/tribal leaders, even threatening to reduce their ability to produce & traffic in narcotics. The CIA exploited these two attack surfaces, financed and accomplished that coup which caused chaotic conditions they KNEW would not be acceptable to the USSR in their "near abroad" & would lead to a military response. Then, more weapons and training in guerilla tactics by British and USA intelligence were provided, along with weapons and financial support solicited from Saudi Arabia, also the Pakistan ISS aligned factions were granted a franchise to export opiates to further finance their insurgency (and a good bit of the profits stuck to various intelligence and warlord types fingers as well, naturally!).
Jimmy Carter's State/CIA were financing the wannabee rebels at least SIX MONTHS BEFORE THE COUP, then his CIA director and Brzezinski told him "we have
presented the USSR with their own Vietnam". President Carter's public facing BS about this maneuver, including boycotting the US attendance of the Olympic games (when he knew full well that THE CIA had maneuvered the USSR into that invasion) is one of the reasons I don't care how many Habitat for Humanity houses he is photographed at, Jimmy is going to Hell if there is one.
----------
"According to former CIA Director Robert Gates, US intelligence services began aiding the anti-Soviet Union mujahideen six months ahead of the Red Army’s invasion.
Brzezinksi said he convinced Carter to sign the first directive for secret aid to opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul on July 3, 1979 in an effort to goad the Red Army into invading, in a 1998 interview.
“I wrote a note to the president in which I explained to him that in my opinion this aid was going to induce a Soviet military intervention,” said Brzezinksi."
After that action (and the USSR) collapsed, when Afghanistan had been reduced to tribal warfare and anarchy, the whole later business of western energy companies not getting a sweetheart energy pipeline deal with the surviving Afghanis, who asked for local distribution of sufficient natural gas in return to provide energy for rebuilding and supporting THEIR OWN infrastructure and economic development, rather than the usual offerings of some (relative pittance of) bribes to those at the top level for transit? Their too high asking price for transit was involved in the later USA invasion, of course. As the pipeline negotiators told the Afghannis: "We offer you a carpet of GOLD, or a carpet of BOMBS". (Afghannis do not like being dictated to by rude ferengi, they chose bombs).
'Indeed, the manipulation of large nations by small nations for their benefit is one of the least-studied parts of international politics, mainly because it appears counter-intuitive, and is often hidden'
Even though it describes the colonial expansion in the 19th century pretty well…
And it's not just counter-intuitive, it's counter-ideology. Previously counter the academically popular idea of western robber-states overwhelming 'poor countries' and right now 'we're doing it again', unleashing our CO2 bombs at EM climates. Just read decolonizing actvist climate warriors like Jason Hickel. Post Christianity is very Christian indeed.
Branko Milanovic published a related essay today:
Freedom by North-West - The obscurantist nature of East European nationalisms
the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan?
My memory of the era has faded but, as I recall, the reformist, UN-recognized Government of Afghanistan invited the USSR to assist in modernizing the country and the USSR did so, and then left in good order.
@Godfree Roberts
The actual Soviet INVASION occurred during the Carter administration after the CIA set up and accomplished their fundamentalist Muslim based coup d'etat against the (excessively modernizing in their view) Afghanni government which had worked with USSR on infrastructure development, with the explicit intent of drawing the USSR into "their own Vietnam". These assholes BRAGGED about causing the USSR:Afghan war and claimed it was their clever actions which destroyed the USSR.
One can only marvel at the lack of sane work with Ukrainian political forces on the part of the Kremlin during the 30 years of Ukraine's existence. When the open confrontation between the Donetsk and Lviv groups began, the Kremlin could only give money or military support to one of the parties. But if you look at Ukraine as an American puppet that does not make decisions on its own, then what is the point of negotiating with local players if you have to go to Washington.
How did this article end without any reference to Israel ?
"Indeed, the manipulation of large nations by small nations for their benefit is one of the least-studied parts of international politics, mainly because it appears counter-intuitive"
I suspect there is some art at work here on Aurelien's part -- and you came up with the (I think frankly obvious) example on your own anyway, didn't you? I don't think this is an accident ...
@eg
Yep.
Author not required to wave a red flag in Mossad's face and simultaneously offer whatever is left of Unit 8200 a free shot at one of their very favoritest attack surfaces, anyone who can allow their mind to go there already went.
I concur. True to form, our host avoids describing the relationship between israel and the Western goverments, especiallythose of the USA, UK, France and Germany-the real elephant in the room. Given that these governments routinely vote against the best interests of their own people to support the "shitty little country" infecting MENA, deny and/or justify genocide just for this one entity, and send "envoys for peace" who served in the IDF and/or awoved zionists, and destroy anyone who speaks against the ziocons, who really has the agency in this set of relationships?
Ishmael Zechariah
1. The founding of the Viet Minh is most instructive here, with wheels turning inside of wheels. The Cliff's Notes version is that the Viet Minh didn't want to be communists at all, they respected and admired the United States, which, however, could not afford to cheeze off its French and British vassals.
2. "They had no ability to take the pulse of the Street, *not any apparent interest in doing so*, and, like other western governments, were completely ignorant about the religious dimension to the protests." (emphasis added)
The emphasized text "not any apparent interest in doing so" is the money quote in that sentence.
@Feral Finster
Re: Viet Minh and their initial political desires?
Ho Chi Minh's February 28th 1946 telegram to President Truman is instructive:
----------
President Ho Chi Minh Vietnam Democratic Republic Hanoi
To the President of the United States of America Washington D.C.
On behalf of Vietnam government and people I beg to inform you that in course of conversations between Vietnam government and French representatives the latter require the secession of Cochinchina and the return of French troops in Hanoi stop meanwhile French population and troops are making active preparations for a coup de main in Hanoi and for military aggression stop I therefore most earnestly appeal to you personally and to the American people to interfere urgently in support of our independence and help making the negotiations more in keeping with the principles of the Atlantic and San Francisco charters
Respectfully
Ho Chi Minh
(signed)
----------
https://history.iowa.gov/history/education/educator-resources/primary-source-sets/cold-war-vietnam/letter-ho-chi-minh-to
The above reminds me of how manipulative kids in some of my many schools, would influence large stupid lumps who were not necessarily natural bullies in order to gain power over the playground.
"So there is often a competition, not to explain a problem as such, but rather to fit it into one of a series of competing frameworks and models, which generate an analysis and a course of action which suits the objectives of the organisation, or strengthens its position in the political market."
At last, an ideal use case for LLMs.
Thank you again for adding depth. It is not that I am now or have been slavishly devote to the Great Power dominance narrative, but neither have I been as clear eyed and logical as you are. The most striking case in the present is the manipulation of the United States by Israel, a manipulative client state masquerading as an ally. Very often, just when I think I have understood a situation actions and relationships of which I had not considered important or of which I had been unaware will upend my supposed understanding. In the case of Southwest Asia, I find it best to await events as the complexities, I suspect, confound even the best informed observer.
I agree with this "Human beings can only tolerate a certain degree of complexity.". However I'm of the opinion our complexity limitations do not stop us from making simple things, complicated. There are a number of reasons, here are a couple.
People need to have a sense of worth. Many think their activities/work needs to be perceived as complicated to justify the activity/job. This is also true in government. Simple situations don't justify growing salaries and departments; always seeming to be necessary.
Those are two simple examples, many more exist.
Italian translation here:
"Piccole persone con un'agenzia. No, non quell'Agenzia."
https://trying2understandw.blogspot.com/2024/09/piccole-persone-con-unagenzia-no-non.html
Don't they call the phenomenon you describe as "Wag The Dog"?
Re: The attempts of smaller nations to influence "great powers" to advance their own interests?
Ho Chi Minh's February 28th 1946 telegram to President Truman is instructive. I wonder how much cheaper it would have been for all involved in the end if Truman had let uncle Ho twist his arm just a bit and told the French NO.
----------
President Ho Chi Minh Vietnam Democratic Republic Hanoi
To the President of the United States of America Washington D.C.
On behalf of Vietnam government and people I beg to inform you that in course of conversations between Vietnam government and French representatives the latter require the secession of Cochinchina and the return of French troops in Hanoi stop meanwhile French population and troops are making active preparations for a coup de main in Hanoi and for military aggression stop I therefore most earnestly appeal to you personally and to the American people to interfere urgently in support of our independence and help making the negotiations more in keeping with the principles of the Atlantic and San Francisco charters
Respectfully
Ho Chi Minh
(signed)
----------
https://history.iowa.gov/history/education/educator-resources/primary-source-sets/cold-war-vietnam/letter-ho-chi-minh-to
----------
The September 1945 assessment of Viet Minh and Ho by OSS officer Archimedes Patti is also instructive:
https://history.iowa.gov/sites/default/files/primary-sources/pdfs/history-education-pss-vietnam-operational-source.pdf
----------
Operational Priority
Have had long conference with Prime Minister, Ho Chi Min and he impresses me as sensible, well balanced, politically minded individual. His demands are few and simple namely limited independence, liberation from French rule, right to live as free people in family of nations and lastly right to deal directly with outside world.
He stated that for many years missionary work of propaganda within party, training of youth and preparation for this day has made them ready not necessarily for complete independence but at least the privilege of dying for their ideals. From that I have been these people mean business and am afraid that French will have to deal with them. For that matter will all have to deal with them. French and beginning to recognize this fact and are going to be big about it by offering Viet Minh terms for their independence. On other hand Vietnam is smart enough to see through Machiavellian attitude French here especially Sainteny and have absolutely refused to deal with him.
Annamese are in unique advantage our position in as much as Japs have given them independence so they consider themselves free of any sovereign power and this includes French who have been hiding behind Jap skirts, vichy tactics and passing themselves off as friends of Americans. On whole Viet Minh has full control of situation not only in hands (unreadable) whole of 3 provinces. Their organization is well knit, program clear and their demands on outside world few. They ask they be permitted travel particularly to America particularly for education purposes and that America send technical experts to help them establish those few industries Indochina is capable of exploiting. Prime Minister particularly asked me that American exercise some control over Chinese occupation forces and that Chinese purchase materials and food rather than requisitioning it during occupation period. Furthermore he pointed out and this I have confirmed from other sources Jap and French that due to flood this year famine is imminent and should Chinese depended on Indochinese for their subsistence during occupation period they will all starve plus creating situation where Annamese will be forced to wage war upon Chinese to protect his livelihood and family.
Annamese celebrating Annamese independence day tomorrow with high solemn mass by Catholics and special ritual by Buddhists.
Re: The USSR invasion of Afghanistan & US conservative's analysis of USSR motive?
(Quote)
"But the West, stuck in its great power mentality, and in the middle of a transition to much tougher anti-Communist line, opted to treat the invasion as a simple expansionist enterprise, which those on the political Right had always warned against. Indeed, many figures on the Right argued gleefully that their worst fears had been confirmed, and that the next target would be Pakistan or Saudi Arabia."
----------
Despite the Carter & later, Reagan administration "authorized version" of events, that the evil commie Russians were expanding their iron fisted dictatorship, intent upon conquering all of western Asia, then the whole world? The State Department and CIA knew better, as they had selected a number of Islamic fundamentalists and local tribal/wannabe war lord power seekers to finance and TRIGGERED the coup against the (too USSR friendly) Afghan government.
Before that coup, the old king's ministries were modernizing Afghanistan too quickly for the sensibilities of some Saudi financed Wahabi fundamentalist trained mullahs and their students (AKA "Taliban"). They were also exercising a bit too much centralized control for the tastes of some ethnic/tribal leaders, even threatening to reduce their ability to produce & traffic in narcotics. The CIA exploited these two attack surfaces, financed and accomplished that coup which caused chaotic conditions they KNEW would not be acceptable to the USSR in their "near abroad" & would lead to a military response. Then, more weapons and training in guerilla tactics by British and USA intelligence were provided, along with weapons and financial support solicited from Saudi Arabia, also the Pakistan ISS aligned factions were granted a franchise to export opiates to further finance their insurgency (and a good bit of the profits stuck to various intelligence and warlord types fingers as well, naturally!).
Jimmy Carter's State/CIA were financing the wannabee rebels at least SIX MONTHS BEFORE THE COUP, then his CIA director and Brzezinski told him "we have
presented the USSR with their own Vietnam". President Carter's public facing BS about this maneuver, including boycotting the US attendance of the Olympic games (when he knew full well that THE CIA had maneuvered the USSR into that invasion) is one of the reasons I don't care how many Habitat for Humanity houses he is photographed at, Jimmy is going to Hell if there is one.
----------
"According to former CIA Director Robert Gates, US intelligence services began aiding the anti-Soviet Union mujahideen six months ahead of the Red Army’s invasion.
Brzezinksi said he convinced Carter to sign the first directive for secret aid to opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul on July 3, 1979 in an effort to goad the Red Army into invading, in a 1998 interview.
“I wrote a note to the president in which I explained to him that in my opinion this aid was going to induce a Soviet military intervention,” said Brzezinksi."
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2003/4/23/afghanistan-the-soviet-unions-vietnam
----------
After that action (and the USSR) collapsed, when Afghanistan had been reduced to tribal warfare and anarchy, the whole later business of western energy companies not getting a sweetheart energy pipeline deal with the surviving Afghanis, who asked for local distribution of sufficient natural gas in return to provide energy for rebuilding and supporting THEIR OWN infrastructure and economic development, rather than the usual offerings of some (relative pittance of) bribes to those at the top level for transit? Their too high asking price for transit was involved in the later USA invasion, of course. As the pipeline negotiators told the Afghannis: "We offer you a carpet of GOLD, or a carpet of BOMBS". (Afghannis do not like being dictated to by rude ferengi, they chose bombs).
'Indeed, the manipulation of large nations by small nations for their benefit is one of the least-studied parts of international politics, mainly because it appears counter-intuitive, and is often hidden'
Even though it describes the colonial expansion in the 19th century pretty well…
And it's not just counter-intuitive, it's counter-ideology. Previously counter the academically popular idea of western robber-states overwhelming 'poor countries' and right now 'we're doing it again', unleashing our CO2 bombs at EM climates. Just read decolonizing actvist climate warriors like Jason Hickel. Post Christianity is very Christian indeed.
Branko Milanovic published a related essay today:
Freedom by North-West - The obscurantist nature of East European nationalisms
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/freedom-by-north-west?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=371309&post_id=149086170&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=6mos7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email