"We have a President who thinks insulting people is a sufficient policy in itself, and a very large part of the population, going well beyond those directly affected by the pensions issue, who feel a personal loathing for him. Only Macron is capable of calming the situation, and he is unable or unwilling to do so. The pot is boiling over."
As always, the only thing that really matters in the end is whether the police and army will hesitate to shoot if ordered to do so. France has spent a great deal of time and effort making sure that those security forces will carry out orders such as these, and if Macron were concerned with their loyalty, he would not be flying off to deliver an ultimatum to Xi. As it is, the people who matter share Macron's undisguised contempt for his fellow citizens. If the price to keep France in the Atlanticist orbit was the wholesale massacre of French citizens, they wouldn't lose a minute's sleep.
Now, what happens in 2027? Either Macron, cheered on by the people who matter, declares a State of Exception (because there is a real possibility that someone unacceptable to the French and European elites will take office), or Macron twats off to Miami or somesuch place and basks in the adulation of the Davos Set (which he can do because his successor is a muppet much like himself).
No matter how it plays out, the French get left holding the bag.
I'm amazed at the extent to which leaders seem to forget that the world is watching. It would seem that Macron's problems domestically will undermine his/France's clout on the world stage. Scholz and Sunak aren't doing too well either. Will the declining popularity of these leaders erode popular support for their foreign policies, e.g. U.S. sanctions on Russia, aid to Ukraine, isolating China, and generally slavish obedience to the U.S. It would seem that Europe will continue to fray as long as the sanctions and the war in Ukraine continue, so the trend is not any leader's friend right now. It will keep getting worse, and worse, until something breaks, imho.
Very well done Aurelien. I wish I could find anyone doing anything similar about Spanish politics. Now this prompted me to questions.
The first has to do with the recent visit to China, where, as I see it, Macron has been, to no avail, playing gossip services for the US Government. I guess that many, particularly among the Republicans, might be angry about such descent of French diplomacy and if this could have any impact on the Parliamentary equilibriums Macron tries to game.
Second question has to do with the possibility to declare "state of exception". I believe there is another excuse that Macron would likely bring for such a movement, particularly if and when things go sour in Ukraine and the EU. Could ge allege "Russian meddling" for such a decision? Wouls it make any difference if he chooses this or "save France from fascism"?
A pity there’s no option for using the guillotine to fix the attitudes of tyrants like Macron or Canada’s Trudeau. I applaud the French people for resisting and swarming Blackstone and their ilk is needed to re-commoditize the world’s economy. Burn down the institutions that oppress us for financial gain whether they are financial or corrupt governmental or more blatantly criminal. GO FRANCE! GO! Maybe the North Americans will follow again.
And how quickly we seem to have forgotten the military push-back to Macron. A public repudiation of the civil power that in any other country would have led to criminal charges, but in France...?
The Macron supporters I know have a shared Euro/Atlanticist identity that they cultivate out of a desire to seem propertied and well off and right thinking and modern. They do this despite the fact that they can’t afford to go on holiday, drive their car anywhere but to work, meet the needs of their family, have people over for dinner etc…. They’re very rah rah Ukraine even while suffering the consequences of the war. Given the superficiality of their support for Europe, NATO, Biden, pension reform and all the rest I would think that Macron’s base of support could vanish very quickly if he were to misstep. Just as they supported the constitutional procedure by which the reform was passed they might support another like it if he were to “go too far.”
My question for the author is to what extent is France in a crisis brought about by denial? What I mean is, we seem to be at war with Russia, there doesn’t seem to be enough rain water for the crops and the rivers and the vineyards, small businesses seem to close all the time and the middle class grows poorer and poorer, and yet the French are meant to sign up for a lottery to buy very expensive tickets for Olympic sporting events held in very chic venues newly restored to their former glory, for example. There would seem to be a lot of potential for people to get even angrier than they already are once the people currently playing make believe get tired of pretending to be part of the elite. I love that the French countryside is stuck in the early 1990s but it would seem that the President is too, by which I mean he isn’t oriented toward solving the problems of this new century.
Great. Fascism for Democracy, calling itself anti-Fascism--which seems like just the effort people like Macron would try. (I don't think things would fall apart quite yet, but who knows....)
"We have a President who thinks insulting people is a sufficient policy in itself, and a very large part of the population, going well beyond those directly affected by the pensions issue, who feel a personal loathing for him. Only Macron is capable of calming the situation, and he is unable or unwilling to do so. The pot is boiling over."
As always, the only thing that really matters in the end is whether the police and army will hesitate to shoot if ordered to do so. France has spent a great deal of time and effort making sure that those security forces will carry out orders such as these, and if Macron were concerned with their loyalty, he would not be flying off to deliver an ultimatum to Xi. As it is, the people who matter share Macron's undisguised contempt for his fellow citizens. If the price to keep France in the Atlanticist orbit was the wholesale massacre of French citizens, they wouldn't lose a minute's sleep.
Now, what happens in 2027? Either Macron, cheered on by the people who matter, declares a State of Exception (because there is a real possibility that someone unacceptable to the French and European elites will take office), or Macron twats off to Miami or somesuch place and basks in the adulation of the Davos Set (which he can do because his successor is a muppet much like himself).
No matter how it plays out, the French get left holding the bag.
I'm amazed at the extent to which leaders seem to forget that the world is watching. It would seem that Macron's problems domestically will undermine his/France's clout on the world stage. Scholz and Sunak aren't doing too well either. Will the declining popularity of these leaders erode popular support for their foreign policies, e.g. U.S. sanctions on Russia, aid to Ukraine, isolating China, and generally slavish obedience to the U.S. It would seem that Europe will continue to fray as long as the sanctions and the war in Ukraine continue, so the trend is not any leader's friend right now. It will keep getting worse, and worse, until something breaks, imho.
Very well done Aurelien. I wish I could find anyone doing anything similar about Spanish politics. Now this prompted me to questions.
The first has to do with the recent visit to China, where, as I see it, Macron has been, to no avail, playing gossip services for the US Government. I guess that many, particularly among the Republicans, might be angry about such descent of French diplomacy and if this could have any impact on the Parliamentary equilibriums Macron tries to game.
Second question has to do with the possibility to declare "state of exception". I believe there is another excuse that Macron would likely bring for such a movement, particularly if and when things go sour in Ukraine and the EU. Could ge allege "Russian meddling" for such a decision? Wouls it make any difference if he chooses this or "save France from fascism"?
A pity there’s no option for using the guillotine to fix the attitudes of tyrants like Macron or Canada’s Trudeau. I applaud the French people for resisting and swarming Blackstone and their ilk is needed to re-commoditize the world’s economy. Burn down the institutions that oppress us for financial gain whether they are financial or corrupt governmental or more blatantly criminal. GO FRANCE! GO! Maybe the North Americans will follow again.
And how quickly we seem to have forgotten the military push-back to Macron. A public repudiation of the civil power that in any other country would have led to criminal charges, but in France...?
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210510-french-government-furious-over-new-military-letter-warning-macron-of-survival-of-france
The Macron supporters I know have a shared Euro/Atlanticist identity that they cultivate out of a desire to seem propertied and well off and right thinking and modern. They do this despite the fact that they can’t afford to go on holiday, drive their car anywhere but to work, meet the needs of their family, have people over for dinner etc…. They’re very rah rah Ukraine even while suffering the consequences of the war. Given the superficiality of their support for Europe, NATO, Biden, pension reform and all the rest I would think that Macron’s base of support could vanish very quickly if he were to misstep. Just as they supported the constitutional procedure by which the reform was passed they might support another like it if he were to “go too far.”
My question for the author is to what extent is France in a crisis brought about by denial? What I mean is, we seem to be at war with Russia, there doesn’t seem to be enough rain water for the crops and the rivers and the vineyards, small businesses seem to close all the time and the middle class grows poorer and poorer, and yet the French are meant to sign up for a lottery to buy very expensive tickets for Olympic sporting events held in very chic venues newly restored to their former glory, for example. There would seem to be a lot of potential for people to get even angrier than they already are once the people currently playing make believe get tired of pretending to be part of the elite. I love that the French countryside is stuck in the early 1990s but it would seem that the President is too, by which I mean he isn’t oriented toward solving the problems of this new century.
Well summed up...
Great. Fascism for Democracy, calling itself anti-Fascism--which seems like just the effort people like Macron would try. (I don't think things would fall apart quite yet, but who knows....)