It seems to me that it confirms one thing: fundamentally, as long as the elites remain united around their common interests and despite constant internal competition for power, there can be no major political change.
For such change to occur, the situation has to be critical enough for a faction within the elites (a counte…
It seems to me that it confirms one thing: fundamentally, as long as the elites remain united around their common interests and despite constant internal competition for power, there can be no major political change.
For such change to occur, the situation has to be critical enough for a faction within the elites (a counter-elite) to decide to join (or rather recruit) a sufficiently large part of the population by capitalizing on its deep dissatisfaction. And, unfortunately, at this stage and with rare exceptions, it never happens without violence and civil war.
It happened all along human history. In France, we've seen this phenomenon at work twice and in two different forms in recent years: during the "gilets jaunes" episode and during the last elections. Twice, the elites lined up to prevent any attempt at change. And the population, whether in the streets or at the ballot box, has been unable to achieve anything...
And this is somehow what Mélenchon is counting on : a "young, good-thinking Liberal middle classes" counter-elite that will organise and use the immigrant communities to topple the system in his favor.
At the other end of the political spectrum, the question is whether a populist, sovereignist and/or conservative counter-elite will be able to organize the rest of the population.
And of course, what the actual elite will decide to do about that. So far, they've only applied the old principle of divide and conquer but, as the economic and social situation keeps worsening, there is a very good chance it turn real nasty. What's happening in England right now could just be a harbinger of things to come…
Excellent essay.
It seems to me that it confirms one thing: fundamentally, as long as the elites remain united around their common interests and despite constant internal competition for power, there can be no major political change.
For such change to occur, the situation has to be critical enough for a faction within the elites (a counter-elite) to decide to join (or rather recruit) a sufficiently large part of the population by capitalizing on its deep dissatisfaction. And, unfortunately, at this stage and with rare exceptions, it never happens without violence and civil war.
It happened all along human history. In France, we've seen this phenomenon at work twice and in two different forms in recent years: during the "gilets jaunes" episode and during the last elections. Twice, the elites lined up to prevent any attempt at change. And the population, whether in the streets or at the ballot box, has been unable to achieve anything...
And this is somehow what Mélenchon is counting on : a "young, good-thinking Liberal middle classes" counter-elite that will organise and use the immigrant communities to topple the system in his favor.
At the other end of the political spectrum, the question is whether a populist, sovereignist and/or conservative counter-elite will be able to organize the rest of the population.
And of course, what the actual elite will decide to do about that. So far, they've only applied the old principle of divide and conquer but, as the economic and social situation keeps worsening, there is a very good chance it turn real nasty. What's happening in England right now could just be a harbinger of things to come…