This is the single most excellent analysis of the NATO/Ukraine/Russia war I have read to-date. And believe me, I've read many.
Although it encapsulates everything I have ever written on the topic, it does so better and more comprehensively than I ever have. I would go so far as to say it does so better than anyone of whom I am aware ever has.
This is, again, very good stuff. Thanks a lot for your effort Aurelien. After reading this it becomes clear my feeling while watching the latest performance of A. Blinken, when he was trying to explain the objectives of the counteroffensive in some interview. He looked very much like the proverbial classroom pupil that, having paid no attention during the class, tries to provide an answer that looks reasonable or logic but anyone that had paid attention could see it was based on utter ignorance on the subject. He said something like "to provide Ukraine a strong position in the negotiation table" and "force Putin to negotiate". Shameless for a person in his position.
Here is one thing that I never did quite understand: why has Finlandization become a bad word? For what it is worth, Finland did quite well (especially for a former ally of Nazi Germany during World War II) through its enforced neutrality. It did not become a Soviet satellite like Poland or Hungary. It was left pretty much alone as long as it didn't antagonize the Soviets. But Finns seem to think that experience as utterly humiliating....
love it ! A terrific summing up. What with you, the Duran, Mercouris, Yves Smith, and Redacted all on the same page, the possibility of an irreversible change in the the world order in a progressive direction, and the humbling of the US into just another world power looks like a serious but still distant possibility. I view the humiliating and permanent destruction of hubristic American and NATO predatory power as essential to any positive future whether socialist of capitalist. Western influence is even now in dramatic decline and the majority of the world's population and governments are backing away from engagement and support. It will take time, but it is happening, powered by the bovine stupidity and corruption of current US and EU politicians and military experts.
I know Aurelian discounts this but I share with Mercouris a growing fear that as the West's options shrink toward zero ( and as the next mega financial crash comes barrelling towards us ) the Nuclear tactical nuke looks more attractive, at first as a desperate battlefield warning to Russia but then in no time at all leading to strikes on active European military airfields across Europe.
“So basically, NATO officers from countries that no longer have a doctrine of heavy-metal warfare, whose strategic tradition is anyway defensive, and whose recent experience is of small-scale counter-insurgency wars, have been hurriedly training raw Ukrainian recruits to fight complex high-intensity offensive armoured battles with equipment designed for defensive or for counter-insurgency operations. Their opponents meanwhile continue to study and practice operational-level defensive doctrine as part of wider strategically offensive operations. Oh dear.”
That paragraph is the best summation I have seen of what has gone wrong with the “counter offensive”. As your article infers, the west is deeply hubristic and unable to self reflect on points like this.
You do not refer to the current shock and awe NATO air exercises but they seem redolent of our quite immature approach to what real warfare means.
I guess that the related question here is that the wider conflict with China is being brewed up, although the west seems as ill suited to wage war there as it is in Ukraine.
"Quite how an organisation with as much hubris as NATO (or for that matter the EU) is going to handle disappointment and defeat is an interesting question, but one that requires an essay of its own."
Plastic guitars are actually very good. I prefer a wooden one but I can see the advantages of plastic. Emerald is a well-known quality builder in Ireland. Not inexpensive either. And a good player can do wonders with only three strings. Reinhardt, in particular, I expect would have confidently made it through the rest of the set if three strings exploded at once.
I get what you're saying, of course. I just wanted a distraction from all this horrible stuff and to think about music, instruments, musicians for a moment.
f-35, and related pentagon profit projects are unilateral disarmament. too heavy/short ranged to be carrier aviation if there were room for Lockheed techs and a large hill of spares on the ship.
usn aircraft carriers need land based cover from usaf f-22 and f-15, with marine f-18 assuring protection from aircraft, while aegis cannot deal with missiles…
for f-35a the computer cannot handle new radar which is catch up to the battle space and a tech refresh is needed to build block 4, not the refresh nor block 4 are technically competent. and block 4 is behind the challenges it would face today. while early blocks do not enter tests on outdated threat scenarios.
we see an order of us battle aimed at shareholder value…. while operations and logistics defer.
I think Russia has the defensive doctrine, not the west. It's Russia that has suffered major invasions throughout its history. The west is who goes around attacking every place on the planet. 🤷
Excellent summing up of the situation. The only problem I see is this:
Russia defeats and then arranges circumstances in Ukraine to suit it's interests as it sees them.
Then what? How does Russia then put pressure on NATO and the EU to 'neutralise' themselves? Sure, militarily, Russia could probably defeat them too, if it wanted, but It probably doesn't want to give them the moral high ground, and sustain further casualties, by attacking. OK, the loss of cheap Russian energy and US economic policies are decimating EU economies, but are they willing to turn on the US and lean towards China (and Russia) - yet, anyway? NATO will be exposed as a busted flush, but so what? The narcissists in charge in Brussels will find it almost impossible to admit defeat, even if everyone else recognises it.
How can pressure be applied on them by Russia?
I am sure that others here can supply valid answers to this question, as sometimes I can hardly see beyond my own nose. I look forward to replies.
First time reader, courtesy of Will Schryver. Great and very readable take on the situation. As Will notes below, there are many articles by many others that essentially make similar points, but this one pulled them all together masterfully. What is going on today is a disaster not only for Ukraine but for Europe........
I am now reading through all your past commentaries.
This is the single most excellent analysis of the NATO/Ukraine/Russia war I have read to-date. And believe me, I've read many.
Although it encapsulates everything I have ever written on the topic, it does so better and more comprehensively than I ever have. I would go so far as to say it does so better than anyone of whom I am aware ever has.
I cannot recommend it highly enough.
First time reader. That is a fantastic, well thought-out, well laid-out article.
Bravo
This is, again, very good stuff. Thanks a lot for your effort Aurelien. After reading this it becomes clear my feeling while watching the latest performance of A. Blinken, when he was trying to explain the objectives of the counteroffensive in some interview. He looked very much like the proverbial classroom pupil that, having paid no attention during the class, tries to provide an answer that looks reasonable or logic but anyone that had paid attention could see it was based on utter ignorance on the subject. He said something like "to provide Ukraine a strong position in the negotiation table" and "force Putin to negotiate". Shameless for a person in his position.
Here is one thing that I never did quite understand: why has Finlandization become a bad word? For what it is worth, Finland did quite well (especially for a former ally of Nazi Germany during World War II) through its enforced neutrality. It did not become a Soviet satellite like Poland or Hungary. It was left pretty much alone as long as it didn't antagonize the Soviets. But Finns seem to think that experience as utterly humiliating....
Impressive logic. Why are there not more like you ?
love it ! A terrific summing up. What with you, the Duran, Mercouris, Yves Smith, and Redacted all on the same page, the possibility of an irreversible change in the the world order in a progressive direction, and the humbling of the US into just another world power looks like a serious but still distant possibility. I view the humiliating and permanent destruction of hubristic American and NATO predatory power as essential to any positive future whether socialist of capitalist. Western influence is even now in dramatic decline and the majority of the world's population and governments are backing away from engagement and support. It will take time, but it is happening, powered by the bovine stupidity and corruption of current US and EU politicians and military experts.
I know Aurelian discounts this but I share with Mercouris a growing fear that as the West's options shrink toward zero ( and as the next mega financial crash comes barrelling towards us ) the Nuclear tactical nuke looks more attractive, at first as a desperate battlefield warning to Russia but then in no time at all leading to strikes on active European military airfields across Europe.
And then ....
Wow. This is a great analysis.
“So basically, NATO officers from countries that no longer have a doctrine of heavy-metal warfare, whose strategic tradition is anyway defensive, and whose recent experience is of small-scale counter-insurgency wars, have been hurriedly training raw Ukrainian recruits to fight complex high-intensity offensive armoured battles with equipment designed for defensive or for counter-insurgency operations. Their opponents meanwhile continue to study and practice operational-level defensive doctrine as part of wider strategically offensive operations. Oh dear.”
That paragraph is the best summation I have seen of what has gone wrong with the “counter offensive”. As your article infers, the west is deeply hubristic and unable to self reflect on points like this.
You do not refer to the current shock and awe NATO air exercises but they seem redolent of our quite immature approach to what real warfare means.
I guess that the related question here is that the wider conflict with China is being brewed up, although the west seems as ill suited to wage war there as it is in Ukraine.
"Quite how an organisation with as much hubris as NATO (or for that matter the EU) is going to handle disappointment and defeat is an interesting question, but one that requires an essay of its own."
Indeed. Please write that essay.
Plastic guitars are actually very good. I prefer a wooden one but I can see the advantages of plastic. Emerald is a well-known quality builder in Ireland. Not inexpensive either. And a good player can do wonders with only three strings. Reinhardt, in particular, I expect would have confidently made it through the rest of the set if three strings exploded at once.
I get what you're saying, of course. I just wanted a distraction from all this horrible stuff and to think about music, instruments, musicians for a moment.
f-35, and related pentagon profit projects are unilateral disarmament. too heavy/short ranged to be carrier aviation if there were room for Lockheed techs and a large hill of spares on the ship.
usn aircraft carriers need land based cover from usaf f-22 and f-15, with marine f-18 assuring protection from aircraft, while aegis cannot deal with missiles…
for f-35a the computer cannot handle new radar which is catch up to the battle space and a tech refresh is needed to build block 4, not the refresh nor block 4 are technically competent. and block 4 is behind the challenges it would face today. while early blocks do not enter tests on outdated threat scenarios.
we see an order of us battle aimed at shareholder value…. while operations and logistics defer.
Brit citizen here...
the more I read about Ukraine the more ashamed I am of my Government and the USA.
This war was entirely avoidable and should never have happened.
I like Americans (worked with many) but I hope Russia wins .
I am sick of these pointless endless wars started by America and its arrogant , corruptruling class.
I think Russia has the defensive doctrine, not the west. It's Russia that has suffered major invasions throughout its history. The west is who goes around attacking every place on the planet. 🤷
Excellent summing up of the situation. The only problem I see is this:
Russia defeats and then arranges circumstances in Ukraine to suit it's interests as it sees them.
Then what? How does Russia then put pressure on NATO and the EU to 'neutralise' themselves? Sure, militarily, Russia could probably defeat them too, if it wanted, but It probably doesn't want to give them the moral high ground, and sustain further casualties, by attacking. OK, the loss of cheap Russian energy and US economic policies are decimating EU economies, but are they willing to turn on the US and lean towards China (and Russia) - yet, anyway? NATO will be exposed as a busted flush, but so what? The narcissists in charge in Brussels will find it almost impossible to admit defeat, even if everyone else recognises it.
How can pressure be applied on them by Russia?
I am sure that others here can supply valid answers to this question, as sometimes I can hardly see beyond my own nose. I look forward to replies.
Very astute analysis and a good read. Thank you!
First time reader, courtesy of Will Schryver. Great and very readable take on the situation. As Will notes below, there are many articles by many others that essentially make similar points, but this one pulled them all together masterfully. What is going on today is a disaster not only for Ukraine but for Europe........
I am now reading through all your past commentaries.
It's not the NATO flag they want to plant on the Kremlin. (Hint, it has lots of colors).