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marcjf's avatar

Without getting into the minutiae, it seems to me that Russia has concluded the West is "agreement incapable" - ie it cannot be trusted. Unless Russia is under a degree of distress that is not apparent to me, a ceasefire on current lines is thus unlikely. It simply allows a vengeful Ukraine time to reorganise and rearm. Nope. I think Russia is now playing for keeps in what for them is an existential conflict, though they do appear to be trying to keep the international temperature low. Ukraine as it exists within its current borders, regime etc is history IMHO. The only issue is timing - and of course how much money and lives it takes to get to that point. And if we can avoid MAD or similar escaltion before that occurs.

And please remember that this war is an episode in a global restructuring and Russia is doubly not therefore inclined to compromise. But then on the same score neither is the USA. So everyone ups the ante the whole time.

Dangerous time. peace depends on the USA calling it a day. Russia would do well to give it an exit route - but for the life of me I cannot see where that might be. Ukraine - and thus the USA - is facing another Saigon or Kabul moment.

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Thomas Cleary's avatar

This is perhaps the clearest and most well thought out analysis of what true negotiations are and why they simply won’t work under present circumstances. If only Washington would come to its senses.

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