A good article, so many thanks. It helped me to think about the end of this war, which will surely come with some form of agreement or other. However, the author is correct I think when he says Russia will try to create facts on the ground that will drive the terms of any agreement, and also a unilateral ability to enforce it. This means in other words that any such agreement will be of a "sign here or else" nature. Negotiations per se will be limited in that scenario.
Now the collective West and Mr T's team may think that they have leverage over Russia. I have very imperfect information about who really thinks what, and what indeed may or may not be the reality. However it is my view that Russia will create "facts on the ground" that simply supercede any attempts to spin a narrative - and in any event Russia believes that the West is agreement incapable.
If Mr T has any sense he will walk away from this fubar and blame the inevitable collapse on Biden. It is unlikely now that the West can use sanctions [or their lifting] as leverage as Russia [and indeed everyone else] knows that they can be re-imposed on a whim and with no warning. So maybe the end will look like a general Ukrainian collapse, a continuance of the economic war against Russia - with maybe the only agreement being the partition line as Ukraine is carved up between its neighbours. I personally don't see Mr T escalating as MAGA will not be served by turning large parts of the USA into radioactive glass. And that is the inevitable outcome of going toe to toe with Russia in its backyard.
Thanks,Aurelien, for yet another excellent essay. I am one of those international law experts who still believe that international law does exist, in its very peculiar form, but it exists. I am very well aware that the will to comply is an essential element of the effectiveness of IL, but this does not diminish its fundamental legal nature. Anyway, Russia and Ukraine will have to negotiate at some point, and in my opinion the sooner the better. The western monolithic commitment to "victory" is cracking, and I totally agree with you when you say that the most difficult task ahead, for western leaders, is to find a way to sell a change of approach to a public opinion that has suffered terribly from the war, the Ukrainians first and foremost, but also the Europeans, who see internal political disruption, the advancement of the extreme right, a deepening economic crisis. And for what? For something that could be solved the day before it started? I am really disappointed in the EU leadership and its betrayal of the values that were supposed to be at the basis of its foundation and existence.
I think there is one additional thing that might be mentioned: both sides cannot enter negotiations convinced that they have won the conflict. I hear more and more delusion coming out of the West, mainly the U.S., that Russia has "lost" or "failed" and will come to any negotiating table at a major disadvantage. Blinken recently said this out loud and it has also been repeated in the MSM. There is a delusional sense of victory being promoted that can only impede any negotiations that may or may not take place.
One thing Russia actually wants from the West right now - and it's largely independent from the reality Russia creates on the ground in Ukraine - is lifting of sanctions.
It is pretty much a given that sanctions won't be lifted - if anyone can think of a likely short-to-medium term scenario where it happens, please do share (excluding black swan events).
The only scenario I can think of is European economy tanking so badly that EU completely pivots to China/Asia. That, of course, implies massive relative weakening of the US. Not very likely short-to-medium term.
Algeria? The Portuguese Ultramarine Wars? Indonesia?
For that matter, liberation movements in Asia and elsewhere were heartening when the Japanese showed that the British and French and Dutch were not, in fact, invincible.
Zelenskii will lower the mobilization age, although he may pretend to put up a fight for internal consumption,. and then, as Ukraine runs though that stretch of warm live bodies, NATO troops will be sent. "We did everythibng you asked of us, we sacrificed our precious children, you owe us now!" will be the cry.
Of course, having walked into the trap, Trump will only be able to escalate, as reversing course will elve him open to cries of "Putin puppet!" and betrayal. Each escalation will increase the sunk cost and make further escalation that much easier.
This abuse of The sunk Cost Fallacy is entirely intentional and is entirely predictable. I was writing about it in 2022.
Note that you whole point depend on Trump not wanting to be called "Putin puppet!"
I'm not sure he cares so much this time what he is called.
At least I hope so....
Beside that "lowering of the mobilization age" might works the other way around : to embarrass Trump by showing that the OTAN brass and Zelensky are ready for a last ditch battle...
Well, they'll have the Baltic poodles, the Czechs, and others. And the Polish politicians will get a pat on the head from their American Master, which is the ultimate honor they can dream of.
Normally, I might agree, but we've heard "they're bluffing! It's reckless, impossible, unpopular, etc.!" at every stage of this war.The West escalates anyway.
After all, it's not like the Polish elites will have to give up their butter-and-egg money, it's not like their offspring will be sacrificed.
The line of contact in Ukraine is 1000+ km long. If the variant with the peacekeepers in implementer, it would make Ukraine the biggest peacekeeping operation ever. To create 40 km wide neutral zone to separate the parties would take 150 thousand peacekeepers.
Beside, the Russian will never believe that this peacekeepers are here for anything else than give time to Ukraine to rearm... After all, the whole point of this war for the Russians was to prevent Western/NATO troops to camp right on their border. So it's not now they will accept that.
Lol ) Will there be German "peacekeepers" in Kharkov? It's impossible. Last time, the Germans massacred many thousands of people in Kharkov. It is easier for Russians to destroy Germany than to accept the presence of German or French "peacekeepers" in their cities.
A good article, so many thanks. It helped me to think about the end of this war, which will surely come with some form of agreement or other. However, the author is correct I think when he says Russia will try to create facts on the ground that will drive the terms of any agreement, and also a unilateral ability to enforce it. This means in other words that any such agreement will be of a "sign here or else" nature. Negotiations per se will be limited in that scenario.
Now the collective West and Mr T's team may think that they have leverage over Russia. I have very imperfect information about who really thinks what, and what indeed may or may not be the reality. However it is my view that Russia will create "facts on the ground" that simply supercede any attempts to spin a narrative - and in any event Russia believes that the West is agreement incapable.
If Mr T has any sense he will walk away from this fubar and blame the inevitable collapse on Biden. It is unlikely now that the West can use sanctions [or their lifting] as leverage as Russia [and indeed everyone else] knows that they can be re-imposed on a whim and with no warning. So maybe the end will look like a general Ukrainian collapse, a continuance of the economic war against Russia - with maybe the only agreement being the partition line as Ukraine is carved up between its neighbours. I personally don't see Mr T escalating as MAGA will not be served by turning large parts of the USA into radioactive glass. And that is the inevitable outcome of going toe to toe with Russia in its backyard.
Thanks,Aurelien, for yet another excellent essay. I am one of those international law experts who still believe that international law does exist, in its very peculiar form, but it exists. I am very well aware that the will to comply is an essential element of the effectiveness of IL, but this does not diminish its fundamental legal nature. Anyway, Russia and Ukraine will have to negotiate at some point, and in my opinion the sooner the better. The western monolithic commitment to "victory" is cracking, and I totally agree with you when you say that the most difficult task ahead, for western leaders, is to find a way to sell a change of approach to a public opinion that has suffered terribly from the war, the Ukrainians first and foremost, but also the Europeans, who see internal political disruption, the advancement of the extreme right, a deepening economic crisis. And for what? For something that could be solved the day before it started? I am really disappointed in the EU leadership and its betrayal of the values that were supposed to be at the basis of its foundation and existence.
I think there is one additional thing that might be mentioned: both sides cannot enter negotiations convinced that they have won the conflict. I hear more and more delusion coming out of the West, mainly the U.S., that Russia has "lost" or "failed" and will come to any negotiating table at a major disadvantage. Blinken recently said this out loud and it has also been repeated in the MSM. There is a delusional sense of victory being promoted that can only impede any negotiations that may or may not take place.
One thing Russia actually wants from the West right now - and it's largely independent from the reality Russia creates on the ground in Ukraine - is lifting of sanctions.
It is pretty much a given that sanctions won't be lifted - if anyone can think of a likely short-to-medium term scenario where it happens, please do share (excluding black swan events).
The only scenario I can think of is European economy tanking so badly that EU completely pivots to China/Asia. That, of course, implies massive relative weakening of the US. Not very likely short-to-medium term.
"the first unambiguous conventional military defeat of modern times for the West."
Didn't we already have this in Vietnam?
Algeria? The Portuguese Ultramarine Wars? Indonesia?
For that matter, liberation movements in Asia and elsewhere were heartening when the Japanese showed that the British and French and Dutch were not, in fact, invincible.
There will be no negotiations.
Don't kid yourselves. Trump has been housebroken.
Zelenskii will lower the mobilization age, although he may pretend to put up a fight for internal consumption,. and then, as Ukraine runs though that stretch of warm live bodies, NATO troops will be sent. "We did everythibng you asked of us, we sacrificed our precious children, you owe us now!" will be the cry.
Of course, having walked into the trap, Trump will only be able to escalate, as reversing course will elve him open to cries of "Putin puppet!" and betrayal. Each escalation will increase the sunk cost and make further escalation that much easier.
This abuse of The sunk Cost Fallacy is entirely intentional and is entirely predictable. I was writing about it in 2022.
Note that you whole point depend on Trump not wanting to be called "Putin puppet!"
I'm not sure he cares so much this time what he is called.
At least I hope so....
Beside that "lowering of the mobilization age" might works the other way around : to embarrass Trump by showing that the OTAN brass and Zelensky are ready for a last ditch battle...
Trump already is showing himself to have even less independence than he did from 2016-2020.
As tot he folly of expecting a 70-something narcissist to be anything other than what he is, I leave as an exercise to the reader.
But yes, the lowering the mobilization age is a trap, and Trump stupidly walked right into it. "You owe us, now!"
Don't you have anything better to do? Neither Trump nor any other US president will send any troops to Ukraine.
Well, it probably will start with Send In The Poles!
Poles alone will not fight with Russia
Well, they'll have the Baltic poodles, the Czechs, and others. And the Polish politicians will get a pat on the head from their American Master, which is the ultimate honor they can dream of.
There are fantasies, and then there are actions.
I await the actions ...
Normally, I might agree, but we've heard "they're bluffing! It's reckless, impossible, unpopular, etc.!" at every stage of this war.The West escalates anyway.
After all, it's not like the Polish elites will have to give up their butter-and-egg money, it's not like their offspring will be sacrificed.
President Zelensky has said publicly that any peace treaty on armistice would not stop Ukraine from carrying out “revenge operations” against Russia.
The line of contact in Ukraine is 1000+ km long. If the variant with the peacekeepers in implementer, it would make Ukraine the biggest peacekeeping operation ever. To create 40 km wide neutral zone to separate the parties would take 150 thousand peacekeepers.
Beside, the Russian will never believe that this peacekeepers are here for anything else than give time to Ukraine to rearm... After all, the whole point of this war for the Russians was to prevent Western/NATO troops to camp right on their border. So it's not now they will accept that.
Lol ) Will there be German "peacekeepers" in Kharkov? It's impossible. Last time, the Germans massacred many thousands of people in Kharkov. It is easier for Russians to destroy Germany than to accept the presence of German or French "peacekeepers" in their cities.