A good article, so many thanks. It helped me to think about the end of this war, which will surely come with some form of agreement or other. However, the author is correct I think when he says Russia will try to create facts on the ground that will drive the terms of any agreement, and also a unilateral ability to enforce it. This means in other words that any such agreement will be of a "sign here or else" nature. Negotiations per se will be limited in that scenario.
Now the collective West and Mr T's team may think that they have leverage over Russia. I have very imperfect information about who really thinks what, and what indeed may or may not be the reality. However it is my view that Russia will create "facts on the ground" that simply supercede any attempts to spin a narrative - and in any event Russia believes that the West is agreement incapable.
If Mr T has any sense he will walk away from this fubar and blame the inevitable collapse on Biden. It is unlikely now that the West can use sanctions [or their lifting] as leverage as Russia [and indeed everyone else] knows that they can be re-imposed on a whim and with no warning. So maybe the end will look like a general Ukrainian collapse, a continuance of the economic war against Russia - with maybe the only agreement being the partition line as Ukraine is carved up between its neighbours. I personally don't see Mr T escalating as MAGA will not be served by turning large parts of the USA into radioactive glass. And that is the inevitable outcome of going toe to toe with Russia in its backyard.
Sanctions? Big Whoop. Where's the evidence that sanctions ever worked?
The Empire and it's bitches have a combined 20,000 sanctions on Russia. What have they accomplished?
*Russia overtakes Japan to become the fourth largest economy in the world in PPP terms*
"The Russian economy has overtaken Japan to become the fourth largest in the world in PPP terms (purchase power parity), according to revised data from the World Bank released at the start of June."
"As bne IntelliNews reported in August, Russia had already overtook Germany to become the fifth biggest economy in adjusted terms. Hit by multiple shocks recently and cut off from cheap Russian gas, Germany is now stagnating and has fallen to sixth place in the World Bank’s ranking.
PPP GDP measurement is preferred by many economists, as it takes into account the difference between local prices and nominal prices, similar to The Economist’s famous Big Mac index: a burger in Moscow costs about half as much as the same burger in New York.
The World Bank has improved Russia’s ranking after revising its data and says that Russia actually overtook Japan in 2021 and has maintained its position at number four since then. Its previous calculations were based on 2017 data but these have now been updated to reflect the 2021 figures."
That's from the US created and run World Bank. So much for the west bragging that their mighty sanctions have brought the Russian economy low and their masses can barely afford cabbage. That's similar to the one about the Russian military needing to pull chip boards from washing machines to run their weapons systems.
Did many many years of sanctions take down Saddam Hussian? Nope, it still took a trillion dollar invasion to do what the sanctions could not.
The POS US empire has embargoed and sanctioned Cuba since forever. Did Castro bend the knee? No. What sanctions really are is a lame political cover for a wicked petty bully, the US empire, to lash out at anyone who dares disobey them. They know the sanction do not work, but like all psychopaths when they don't get their way they want blood and they do in fact get it, but not the leader's ruling classes blood. Cutting off medication and food hurts the regular people. Not once did Saddam ever go hungry - Hell he even had his Cuban cigars the whole time. Cigars from a US empire embargoed and sanctioned nation exported to a different US empire sanctioned nation. That there says it all, but while Saddam was smoking and laughing at Americans, weak and sick Iraq's died. The American ruling class would love it if their sanctions hurt the 'bad guys' leader and even though they know it only kills the innocent, they still think It's Worth It.
Also, appearances must be kept, or so the Americans still think. They might be the only nation left on the planet that still believes they are bad ass #1. Blowing shit up is the only thing the US military are good for. They are a shadow of the military that invaded Iraq in 2003. It's a big shadow given how fat they are.
.
*Nearly 70% of US troops are overweight or obese, research report says*
"One commonly made assumption is that the United States has for decades enjoyed conventional military dominance, the ability to defeat any other actor in a conventional fight. The assumption of historic military dominance, often understood as fact, is almost entirely unsupported by meaningful evidence....dominance cannot be measured by defense spending or even training. Dominance can only be measured through performance, and the United States’ history does not support a narrative of conventional military dominance."
" The United States played a valuable role in World War I and World War II, but was not the primary combatant in either conflict. Americans fought hard, sacrificed, and made a key difference in both wars, but did so as part of large alliances that included other powerful states, not as a military titan crushing its enemies."
Thanks,Aurelien, for yet another excellent essay. I am one of those international law experts who still believe that international law does exist, in its very peculiar form, but it exists. I am very well aware that the will to comply is an essential element of the effectiveness of IL, but this does not diminish its fundamental legal nature. Anyway, Russia and Ukraine will have to negotiate at some point, and in my opinion the sooner the better. The western monolithic commitment to "victory" is cracking, and I totally agree with you when you say that the most difficult task ahead, for western leaders, is to find a way to sell a change of approach to a public opinion that has suffered terribly from the war, the Ukrainians first and foremost, but also the Europeans, who see internal political disruption, the advancement of the extreme right, a deepening economic crisis. And for what? For something that could be solved the day before it started? I am really disappointed in the EU leadership and its betrayal of the values that were supposed to be at the basis of its foundation and existence.
In the interests of a lasting peace and minimising the totality of costs of this war, and as indicated by Aurelian that a lasting peace can only be obtained by a comprehensive victory, I have to disagree with you by positing that it will be 'the later, the better'. (Although in the interests of stopping the present death toll, sooner would indeed be better). But sooner/better to serve the interests of 'Europe' is a totally unnecessary and indeed counterproductive aim.
Well, I get your point. I don't intend the sooner the better to serve the interests of Europe, but first and foremost to stop the carnage and the destruction.
I think there is one additional thing that might be mentioned: both sides cannot enter negotiations convinced that they have won the conflict. I hear more and more delusion coming out of the West, mainly the U.S., that Russia has "lost" or "failed" and will come to any negotiating table at a major disadvantage. Blinken recently said this out loud and it has also been repeated in the MSM. There is a delusional sense of victory being promoted that can only impede any negotiations that may or may not take place.
It occurs to me that we need honest negotiators, who actually want to end the war, more than anything else, especially for the Ukrainian-Russian War, but as Vladimir Putin said, the Americans "are not agreement capable."
Restated, the ruling elites of both Europe and the United States will treat any treaties with the same lack of respect that they treat their own nations, which is very poorly. We have a kleptocratic, kakistocratic, and oligarchic, ruling elite. I have not faith in either the US/EU or Ukraine.
Zelenskii will lower the mobilization age, although he may pretend to put up a fight for internal consumption,. and then, as Ukraine runs though that stretch of warm live bodies, NATO troops will be sent. "We did everythibng you asked of us, we sacrificed our precious children, you owe us now!" will be the cry.
Of course, having walked into the trap, Trump will only be able to escalate, as reversing course will elve him open to cries of "Putin puppet!" and betrayal. Each escalation will increase the sunk cost and make further escalation that much easier.
This abuse of The sunk Cost Fallacy is entirely intentional and is entirely predictable. I was writing about it in 2022.
Well, they'll have the Baltic poodles, the Czechs, and others. And the Polish politicians will get a pat on the head from their American Master, which is the ultimate honor they can dream of.
Normally, I might agree, but we've heard "they're bluffing! It's reckless, impossible, unpopular, etc.!" at every stage of this war.The West escalates anyway.
After all, it's not like the Polish elites will have to give up their butter-and-egg money, it's not like their offspring will be sacrificed.
Note that you whole point depend on Trump not wanting to be called "Putin puppet!"
I'm not sure he cares so much this time what he is called.
At least I hope so....
Beside that "lowering of the mobilization age" might works the other way around : to embarrass Trump by showing that the OTAN brass and Zelensky are ready for a last ditch battle...
Apparently the Ukrainian assembly just announced there will be no change in the mobilization age.
To me, with these new economic sanctions, long range weapons, billions in new aid package and all, it looks like the Biden administration is just committed to make things as difficult as possible for Trump. Up to their last days in power.
Trump making John Bolton an unperson can be considered an act of war on the Neocons. We are witnessing the slow dismantling of Neoliberal economics and Neoconservative politics; the economic and political pendula have swung to the end of their travel, and are now swinging back on a new arc.
Your particular point of view, as indicated in many previous posts, seems to be that of an Old Testament prophet, crying "Woe, woe" in the wilderness. It won't get you any further than it got them.
My point really is that your view is skewed away from reality by your pessimism. I agree that going to the opposite extreme of "comforting lies" is equally futile, but in order to arrive at an approximation of reality you have to take your inbuilt propensities into account.
The line of contact in Ukraine is 1000+ km long. If the variant with the peacekeepers in implementer, it would make Ukraine the biggest peacekeeping operation ever. To create 40 km wide neutral zone to separate the parties would take 150 thousand peacekeepers.
Lol ) Will there be German "peacekeepers" in Kharkov? It's impossible. Last time, the Germans massacred many thousands of people in Kharkov. It is easier for Russians to destroy Germany than to accept the presence of German or French "peacekeepers" in their cities.
Beside, the Russian will never believe that this peacekeepers are here for anything else than give time to Ukraine to rearm... After all, the whole point of this war for the Russians was to prevent Western/NATO troops to camp right on their border. So it's not now they will accept that.
Si Rusia aceptara tener a tropas francesas, inglesas o alemanas como tropas de mantenimiento de la paz sería un error muy grande. recordemos que con sus armas se ha disparado a civiles en ciudades rusas, que los objetivos de los misiles los han seleccionado sus militares, también han operado los propios Himars, etc , etc. Además USA seguiría atacando mediante sus proxis ucranianos pero esta vez escondidos tras las faldas europeas.
One thing Russia actually wants from the West right now - and it's largely independent from the reality Russia creates on the ground in Ukraine - is lifting of sanctions.
It is pretty much a given that sanctions won't be lifted - if anyone can think of a likely short-to-medium term scenario where it happens, please do share (excluding black swan events).
The only scenario I can think of is European economy tanking so badly that EU completely pivots to China/Asia. That, of course, implies massive relative weakening of the US. Not very likely short-to-medium term.
You are right about the EU, but not the US. So far, the US has only benefited. And long term, sanctions do hurt Russia. Even short-to-medium term, oil&gas revenues have shrunk. Gazprom is not very happy about it. On the other hand, import substitution demands did boost domestic industry.
The only possible scenario where sanctions are lifted is if the EU finally understands that it needs, in its own interest, to reestablish normal relations with Russia as a neighbor. So, agreement and lifting of sanctions as part of the deal. Not a very likely scenario, at least in the short term, also because it needs a complete change of posture by the Europeans, at least acquiescence by the Americans, and a comprehensive treaty, not a simple ceasefire or freezing of the conflict. I am also very concerned about something Aurelien himself analyzed in a past essay, that is the element of fear, reciprocal fear, which takes the form of complete distrust in the good faith, or lack thereof, of the counterparts, thus undermining future negotiations.
I guess it was ironic! But the point is, again, that lifting the santions can be achieved only in the framework of a comprehensive agreement, and a roadmap, whose implementation is going to be full of traps and hurdles... I would love to read Aurelien about the issue of sanctions. It would be an interesting topic for a future essay!
I believe it all comes down eventually to the cost of producing energy to power your economy. The cost of extracting oil and gas from rocks and sand will always be greater than from underground deposits. The former is the main source of hydrocarbons for the US, and the latter for Russia. Also, Russia will always find plenty of eager customers in the rapidly developing East and South. In addition to this, gas and oil revenue is not the most important part of Russia's international trade. Maintaining the sanctions cuts the Europe and the USA from the source of cheap energy and competitively priced industrial products, such as fertilisers. I think all of that will hurt the USA and EU in the long run, and Russia's loses will be quickly diminishing.
Algeria? The Portuguese Ultramarine Wars? Indonesia?
For that matter, liberation movements in Asia and elsewhere were heartening when the Japanese showed that the British and French and Dutch were not, in fact, invincible.
Thank you very much for your insightful essay, your other essays, and your thoughtful book recommendations. I am particularly grateful for the book „Concentration“, which you recommended some time ago. „The Black Man’s Burden: Africa and the Curse of the Nation-State“ has been an excellent source for better understanding of the vast African continent, I found the parallels to the Eastern Europe insightful analysed in the book.
While reading your recent essay, I felt it resonated with the themes explored in „The Twenty Years’ Crisis, 1919–1939: An Introduction to the Study of International Relations“ by E.H. Carr. Do you have any particular thoughts on this book and maybe on other books by E.H. Carr?
And of course vice versa - i.e. the war is continued. Which can only result in an even more comprehensive defeat, and an even more abject capitulation. And so on ad infinitum, till there are no living humans in the Ukraine. I doubt that even the nazis in the Ukraine are so moronic..
A good article, so many thanks. It helped me to think about the end of this war, which will surely come with some form of agreement or other. However, the author is correct I think when he says Russia will try to create facts on the ground that will drive the terms of any agreement, and also a unilateral ability to enforce it. This means in other words that any such agreement will be of a "sign here or else" nature. Negotiations per se will be limited in that scenario.
Now the collective West and Mr T's team may think that they have leverage over Russia. I have very imperfect information about who really thinks what, and what indeed may or may not be the reality. However it is my view that Russia will create "facts on the ground" that simply supercede any attempts to spin a narrative - and in any event Russia believes that the West is agreement incapable.
If Mr T has any sense he will walk away from this fubar and blame the inevitable collapse on Biden. It is unlikely now that the West can use sanctions [or their lifting] as leverage as Russia [and indeed everyone else] knows that they can be re-imposed on a whim and with no warning. So maybe the end will look like a general Ukrainian collapse, a continuance of the economic war against Russia - with maybe the only agreement being the partition line as Ukraine is carved up between its neighbours. I personally don't see Mr T escalating as MAGA will not be served by turning large parts of the USA into radioactive glass. And that is the inevitable outcome of going toe to toe with Russia in its backyard.
Sanctions? Big Whoop. Where's the evidence that sanctions ever worked?
The Empire and it's bitches have a combined 20,000 sanctions on Russia. What have they accomplished?
*Russia overtakes Japan to become the fourth largest economy in the world in PPP terms*
"The Russian economy has overtaken Japan to become the fourth largest in the world in PPP terms (purchase power parity), according to revised data from the World Bank released at the start of June."
"As bne IntelliNews reported in August, Russia had already overtook Germany to become the fifth biggest economy in adjusted terms. Hit by multiple shocks recently and cut off from cheap Russian gas, Germany is now stagnating and has fallen to sixth place in the World Bank’s ranking.
PPP GDP measurement is preferred by many economists, as it takes into account the difference between local prices and nominal prices, similar to The Economist’s famous Big Mac index: a burger in Moscow costs about half as much as the same burger in New York.
The World Bank has improved Russia’s ranking after revising its data and says that Russia actually overtook Japan in 2021 and has maintained its position at number four since then. Its previous calculations were based on 2017 data but these have now been updated to reflect the 2021 figures."
https://www.intellinews.com/russia-overtakes-japan-to-become-the-fourth-largest-economy-in-the-world-in-ppp-terms-328108/
That's from the US created and run World Bank. So much for the west bragging that their mighty sanctions have brought the Russian economy low and their masses can barely afford cabbage. That's similar to the one about the Russian military needing to pull chip boards from washing machines to run their weapons systems.
Did many many years of sanctions take down Saddam Hussian? Nope, it still took a trillion dollar invasion to do what the sanctions could not.
The POS US empire has embargoed and sanctioned Cuba since forever. Did Castro bend the knee? No. What sanctions really are is a lame political cover for a wicked petty bully, the US empire, to lash out at anyone who dares disobey them. They know the sanction do not work, but like all psychopaths when they don't get their way they want blood and they do in fact get it, but not the leader's ruling classes blood. Cutting off medication and food hurts the regular people. Not once did Saddam ever go hungry - Hell he even had his Cuban cigars the whole time. Cigars from a US empire embargoed and sanctioned nation exported to a different US empire sanctioned nation. That there says it all, but while Saddam was smoking and laughing at Americans, weak and sick Iraq's died. The American ruling class would love it if their sanctions hurt the 'bad guys' leader and even though they know it only kills the innocent, they still think It's Worth It.
Also, appearances must be kept, or so the Americans still think. They might be the only nation left on the planet that still believes they are bad ass #1. Blowing shit up is the only thing the US military are good for. They are a shadow of the military that invaded Iraq in 2003. It's a big shadow given how fat they are.
.
*Nearly 70% of US troops are overweight or obese, research report says*
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2023-10-17/military-troops-obese-overweight-11738212.html
*The Myth of American Military Dominance*
"One commonly made assumption is that the United States has for decades enjoyed conventional military dominance, the ability to defeat any other actor in a conventional fight. The assumption of historic military dominance, often understood as fact, is almost entirely unsupported by meaningful evidence....dominance cannot be measured by defense spending or even training. Dominance can only be measured through performance, and the United States’ history does not support a narrative of conventional military dominance."
" The United States played a valuable role in World War I and World War II, but was not the primary combatant in either conflict. Americans fought hard, sacrificed, and made a key difference in both wars, but did so as part of large alliances that included other powerful states, not as a military titan crushing its enemies."
https://warontherocks.com/2019/08/the-myth-of-american-military-dominance/
Thanks,Aurelien, for yet another excellent essay. I am one of those international law experts who still believe that international law does exist, in its very peculiar form, but it exists. I am very well aware that the will to comply is an essential element of the effectiveness of IL, but this does not diminish its fundamental legal nature. Anyway, Russia and Ukraine will have to negotiate at some point, and in my opinion the sooner the better. The western monolithic commitment to "victory" is cracking, and I totally agree with you when you say that the most difficult task ahead, for western leaders, is to find a way to sell a change of approach to a public opinion that has suffered terribly from the war, the Ukrainians first and foremost, but also the Europeans, who see internal political disruption, the advancement of the extreme right, a deepening economic crisis. And for what? For something that could be solved the day before it started? I am really disappointed in the EU leadership and its betrayal of the values that were supposed to be at the basis of its foundation and existence.
In the interests of a lasting peace and minimising the totality of costs of this war, and as indicated by Aurelian that a lasting peace can only be obtained by a comprehensive victory, I have to disagree with you by positing that it will be 'the later, the better'. (Although in the interests of stopping the present death toll, sooner would indeed be better). But sooner/better to serve the interests of 'Europe' is a totally unnecessary and indeed counterproductive aim.
Well, I get your point. I don't intend the sooner the better to serve the interests of Europe, but first and foremost to stop the carnage and the destruction.
I think there is one additional thing that might be mentioned: both sides cannot enter negotiations convinced that they have won the conflict. I hear more and more delusion coming out of the West, mainly the U.S., that Russia has "lost" or "failed" and will come to any negotiating table at a major disadvantage. Blinken recently said this out loud and it has also been repeated in the MSM. There is a delusional sense of victory being promoted that can only impede any negotiations that may or may not take place.
It occurs to me that we need honest negotiators, who actually want to end the war, more than anything else, especially for the Ukrainian-Russian War, but as Vladimir Putin said, the Americans "are not agreement capable."
Restated, the ruling elites of both Europe and the United States will treat any treaties with the same lack of respect that they treat their own nations, which is very poorly. We have a kleptocratic, kakistocratic, and oligarchic, ruling elite. I have not faith in either the US/EU or Ukraine.
There will be no negotiations.
Don't kid yourselves. Trump has been housebroken.
Zelenskii will lower the mobilization age, although he may pretend to put up a fight for internal consumption,. and then, as Ukraine runs though that stretch of warm live bodies, NATO troops will be sent. "We did everythibng you asked of us, we sacrificed our precious children, you owe us now!" will be the cry.
Of course, having walked into the trap, Trump will only be able to escalate, as reversing course will elve him open to cries of "Putin puppet!" and betrayal. Each escalation will increase the sunk cost and make further escalation that much easier.
This abuse of The sunk Cost Fallacy is entirely intentional and is entirely predictable. I was writing about it in 2022.
Don't you have anything better to do? Neither Trump nor any other US president will send any troops to Ukraine.
Well, it probably will start with Send In The Poles!
Poles alone will not fight with Russia
Well, they'll have the Baltic poodles, the Czechs, and others. And the Polish politicians will get a pat on the head from their American Master, which is the ultimate honor they can dream of.
There are fantasies, and then there are actions.
I await the actions ...
Normally, I might agree, but we've heard "they're bluffing! It's reckless, impossible, unpopular, etc.!" at every stage of this war.The West escalates anyway.
After all, it's not like the Polish elites will have to give up their butter-and-egg money, it's not like their offspring will be sacrificed.
The guy is clearly mentally ill, he stalks all these Substacks and spews garbage until he gets banned. Just ignore him.
Note that you whole point depend on Trump not wanting to be called "Putin puppet!"
I'm not sure he cares so much this time what he is called.
At least I hope so....
Beside that "lowering of the mobilization age" might works the other way around : to embarrass Trump by showing that the OTAN brass and Zelensky are ready for a last ditch battle...
Trump already is showing himself to have even less independence than he did from 2016-2020.
As tot he folly of expecting a 70-something narcissist to be anything other than what he is, I leave as an exercise to the reader.
But yes, the lowering the mobilization age is a trap, and Trump stupidly walked right into it. "You owe us, now!"
I'm not so sure...
Apparently the Ukrainian assembly just announced there will be no change in the mobilization age.
To me, with these new economic sanctions, long range weapons, billions in new aid package and all, it looks like the Biden administration is just committed to make things as difficult as possible for Trump. Up to their last days in power.
Time will tell....
Trump making John Bolton an unperson can be considered an act of war on the Neocons. We are witnessing the slow dismantling of Neoliberal economics and Neoconservative politics; the economic and political pendula have swung to the end of their travel, and are now swinging back on a new arc.
Don't be distracted by theater.
Your particular point of view, as indicated in many previous posts, seems to be that of an Old Testament prophet, crying "Woe, woe" in the wilderness. It won't get you any further than it got them.
I do my best to accurately describe observable reality as I see it, not to provide comforting lies.
My point really is that your view is skewed away from reality by your pessimism. I agree that going to the opposite extreme of "comforting lies" is equally futile, but in order to arrive at an approximation of reality you have to take your inbuilt propensities into account.
None of that addresses any of my specific points or why they may be wrong other than than you don't like my heuristics.
I got to listen to the comforting lies over and over throughout this war and before, even as none of their confident predictions came true.
The line of contact in Ukraine is 1000+ km long. If the variant with the peacekeepers in implementer, it would make Ukraine the biggest peacekeeping operation ever. To create 40 km wide neutral zone to separate the parties would take 150 thousand peacekeepers.
Lol ) Will there be German "peacekeepers" in Kharkov? It's impossible. Last time, the Germans massacred many thousands of people in Kharkov. It is easier for Russians to destroy Germany than to accept the presence of German or French "peacekeepers" in their cities.
Beside, the Russian will never believe that this peacekeepers are here for anything else than give time to Ukraine to rearm... After all, the whole point of this war for the Russians was to prevent Western/NATO troops to camp right on their border. So it's not now they will accept that.
Si Rusia aceptara tener a tropas francesas, inglesas o alemanas como tropas de mantenimiento de la paz sería un error muy grande. recordemos que con sus armas se ha disparado a civiles en ciudades rusas, que los objetivos de los misiles los han seleccionado sus militares, también han operado los propios Himars, etc , etc. Además USA seguiría atacando mediante sus proxis ucranianos pero esta vez escondidos tras las faldas europeas.
My italian translation, here:
"Quando in Ucraina sarà finita...
Come faranno a spegnere le luci?"
https://trying2understandw.blogspot.com/2025/01/quando-in-ucraina-sara-finita-come.html
One thing Russia actually wants from the West right now - and it's largely independent from the reality Russia creates on the ground in Ukraine - is lifting of sanctions.
It is pretty much a given that sanctions won't be lifted - if anyone can think of a likely short-to-medium term scenario where it happens, please do share (excluding black swan events).
The only scenario I can think of is European economy tanking so badly that EU completely pivots to China/Asia. That, of course, implies massive relative weakening of the US. Not very likely short-to-medium term.
I am not sure whether Russia needs lifting of sanctions. Maintaining them will hurt EU and the USA far more than Russia.
You are right about the EU, but not the US. So far, the US has only benefited. And long term, sanctions do hurt Russia. Even short-to-medium term, oil&gas revenues have shrunk. Gazprom is not very happy about it. On the other hand, import substitution demands did boost domestic industry.
The only possible scenario where sanctions are lifted is if the EU finally understands that it needs, in its own interest, to reestablish normal relations with Russia as a neighbor. So, agreement and lifting of sanctions as part of the deal. Not a very likely scenario, at least in the short term, also because it needs a complete change of posture by the Europeans, at least acquiescence by the Americans, and a comprehensive treaty, not a simple ceasefire or freezing of the conflict. I am also very concerned about something Aurelien himself analyzed in a past essay, that is the element of fear, reciprocal fear, which takes the form of complete distrust in the good faith, or lack thereof, of the counterparts, thus undermining future negotiations.
Yes, good faith supplies have run out, and this is a major problem. Being duplicitous is almost an instinct. Check out this gem on sanctions: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/lift-sanctions-on-russia/
The bit about down the "grand gesture" is so out-of-touch, I couldn't believe my eyes
I guess it was ironic! But the point is, again, that lifting the santions can be achieved only in the framework of a comprehensive agreement, and a roadmap, whose implementation is going to be full of traps and hurdles... I would love to read Aurelien about the issue of sanctions. It would be an interesting topic for a future essay!
I believe it all comes down eventually to the cost of producing energy to power your economy. The cost of extracting oil and gas from rocks and sand will always be greater than from underground deposits. The former is the main source of hydrocarbons for the US, and the latter for Russia. Also, Russia will always find plenty of eager customers in the rapidly developing East and South. In addition to this, gas and oil revenue is not the most important part of Russia's international trade. Maintaining the sanctions cuts the Europe and the USA from the source of cheap energy and competitively priced industrial products, such as fertilisers. I think all of that will hurt the USA and EU in the long run, and Russia's loses will be quickly diminishing.
"the first unambiguous conventional military defeat of modern times for the West."
Didn't we already have this in Vietnam?
Algeria? The Portuguese Ultramarine Wars? Indonesia?
For that matter, liberation movements in Asia and elsewhere were heartening when the Japanese showed that the British and French and Dutch were not, in fact, invincible.
I guess "conventional" means 2 regular armies face to face on each side of a front line.
Hello Aurelien! I took the liberty to publish an excerpt from your post in my blog, "The Seneca Effect"
https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/ukraine-end-the-war-or-escalate-it
Thanks for the good work you are doing!
This is an excellent description of the situation, the history of these situations, and the tools available to the players. Bravo!
Dear Aurelien,
Thank you very much for your insightful essay, your other essays, and your thoughtful book recommendations. I am particularly grateful for the book „Concentration“, which you recommended some time ago. „The Black Man’s Burden: Africa and the Curse of the Nation-State“ has been an excellent source for better understanding of the vast African continent, I found the parallels to the Eastern Europe insightful analysed in the book.
While reading your recent essay, I felt it resonated with the themes explored in „The Twenty Years’ Crisis, 1919–1939: An Introduction to the Study of International Relations“ by E.H. Carr. Do you have any particular thoughts on this book and maybe on other books by E.H. Carr?
Best regards,
Alex
President Zelensky has said publicly that any peace treaty on armistice would not stop Ukraine from carrying out “revenge operations” against Russia.
And of course vice versa - i.e. the war is continued. Which can only result in an even more comprehensive defeat, and an even more abject capitulation. And so on ad infinitum, till there are no living humans in the Ukraine. I doubt that even the nazis in the Ukraine are so moronic..