This is another very good article and I would like to point out that Russia and Israel most recently suffered from the same illusion as western policymakers that future combat will be fought by highly professionalised, technologically advanced, militaries.
You can see the Russian army adopting the "Gerasimov Doctrine" which also called fo…
This is another very good article and I would like to point out that Russia and Israel most recently suffered from the same illusion as western policymakers that future combat will be fought by highly professionalised, technologically advanced, militaries.
You can see the Russian army adopting the "Gerasimov Doctrine" which also called for greater use of technology and grey-zone forces working in Syria and parts of Africa. It fell apart in the failed invasion of Ukraine which called for mass mobilisation rather than a pincer strike by small forces.
The Israelis suffered even greater levels of delusion believing that a small, highly proficient, technologically developed military, can do the job instead of mass mobilisation of their armed forces. Indeed the length of conscription was cut in Israel and the creation of highly specialised special forces units proliferated. This doctrine died on October 7 when Israeli tanks had no infantry support and were literally overrun by cheap drones and thousands of Gazan terrorists, militants, and random people with AK-47s.
I do not blame policymakers for these errors because recent history played to their biases. Whether it was the expeditionary warfare of Africa or the Middle East, or Azerbaijan's technologically superior forces wiping out the Armenian forces in a short, one-sided, conflict. Recent history suggested that they could continue the court and that there was no need to implement unpopular policies.
What I find interesting is that Russia and Israel have the basic infrastructure and mental models to revert back and rapidly scale their militaries. Their political system has acknowledged the failures (although not all failures) and is implementing solutions to enable large scale, mass mobilised, warfare to recommence. Meanwhile, western nations are still under the illusion that they can do all the stuff their politicians and senior civil servants like to talk about without disrupting the lives of their overly comfortable societies. This western fakery is the culmination of a politico-media-civil servant class that has never had to face real challenges, trade-offs, or facing a brutal reality that cannot be washed away with a press release. Hence why conscription is not a serious idea but is played by politicians looking to secure a few extra votes. It's all part of political theatre.
This is another very good article and I would like to point out that Russia and Israel most recently suffered from the same illusion as western policymakers that future combat will be fought by highly professionalised, technologically advanced, militaries.
You can see the Russian army adopting the "Gerasimov Doctrine" which also called for greater use of technology and grey-zone forces working in Syria and parts of Africa. It fell apart in the failed invasion of Ukraine which called for mass mobilisation rather than a pincer strike by small forces.
The Israelis suffered even greater levels of delusion believing that a small, highly proficient, technologically developed military, can do the job instead of mass mobilisation of their armed forces. Indeed the length of conscription was cut in Israel and the creation of highly specialised special forces units proliferated. This doctrine died on October 7 when Israeli tanks had no infantry support and were literally overrun by cheap drones and thousands of Gazan terrorists, militants, and random people with AK-47s.
I do not blame policymakers for these errors because recent history played to their biases. Whether it was the expeditionary warfare of Africa or the Middle East, or Azerbaijan's technologically superior forces wiping out the Armenian forces in a short, one-sided, conflict. Recent history suggested that they could continue the court and that there was no need to implement unpopular policies.
What I find interesting is that Russia and Israel have the basic infrastructure and mental models to revert back and rapidly scale their militaries. Their political system has acknowledged the failures (although not all failures) and is implementing solutions to enable large scale, mass mobilised, warfare to recommence. Meanwhile, western nations are still under the illusion that they can do all the stuff their politicians and senior civil servants like to talk about without disrupting the lives of their overly comfortable societies. This western fakery is the culmination of a politico-media-civil servant class that has never had to face real challenges, trade-offs, or facing a brutal reality that cannot be washed away with a press release. Hence why conscription is not a serious idea but is played by politicians looking to secure a few extra votes. It's all part of political theatre.