Well, even Sweden feels threatened enough by Russian invasion that they are going to make their army bigger: they promise to increase the head-count to 10 000 from the current 8000, and this feat is accomplished by 2030. Oh, the sacrifices Swedes are willing to make! Of course, none of that pesky planning Aurelien describing is necessary, just hating the evil Russkies is quite enough to defeat them by our sheer willpower. We have just not been hating enough, so the media is working overtime producing all sorts of shady incidences that possibly could be attributed to hybrid war/threat whatever. Sadly, the hate and threat rhethoric has historically workd quite well in fomenting a war - the ability to carry it on, and even be somewhat successful, is another matter entirely.
This essay was specially written for the NATO anniversary Summit. There is only one conclusion from all that I have read - China and Russia have nothing to fear.
The unelected elite really wants war. As have been obvious since the covid-years, you dying may actually be the plan.
Since the NATO-representatives couldn’t imagine the level of violence in Ukraine, when Russia operates with the gloves on, how are they going to plan for a war when Russia takes the gloves off? Remember that Russia saw Ukraine as brotherly and to an extent as the same people. They do not have this feeling for any Nordic or other West European countries. They will bomb the infrastructure to smithereens immediately, just like the US did in Iraq and Israel in Gaza, to spread famine, thirst, disease and death. Just more competently.
You appear to be discussing RF bombing of European countries - this is unlikely, but maybe you could give some reasons for stating this
Unlikely mainly because although some EU leaders say they want war, to prolong and to expand the current proxy engagements, and even to enter directly into war, they do very little, as Aurélien points out, and can do very little by way of even beginning preparations
Even less their peoples do or will
As for the unelected EU Commission and Council - read their speeches at the recent Berlin reconstruction conference - the dominant females, VdL, KK, Barebock, in chorus said that the best and the only support they could give Ukraine was the prospect of speedy EU membership
If you think there's no possible lower value operational intelligence than the European national élites, try the EUCs
I really like that idea, but I think you miss the big point. Europe's leadership is completely owned by the same people who own Americas leadership - from grade school education to movies to elite universities to every law court and doctors offices and everything else.
No, the European people are not going to rise up and fight Russia. The globalist government aperatachik will receive an envelope with cash and instructions to invite US nuclear capable missiles.
The EU ruling class as the governing class hired hands, the lawyers etc have fused with the US equivalents
The ruling class, the 'leaders', are already US, with passports green cards think tank university contracts, mothers wives and husbands, their children at Yale
They all speaky yankee don't you know
(look it up -it's true)
That one or two politicians, say Orban or Marine le Pen, appear they stamp their feet with frustration, call them Putin, and colour rev them
The poor peoples have started getting a clue as to what a bad deal they got, but it'll take a lot more poverty and chaos, a lot more police stating, before someone starts to kill them
The political ideology of the west is still Neoliberal capitalism, with a good deal of malthusianism inside. After the total defeat of the working class, the neoliberal priests dont need to rant or proclaim their mantra. It has already been assymilated. But let me refresh some of the liberal dogma lies:
- there is a hidden hand who automatically regulates the markets.
- A free market is the best solution for economic development and efficiency.
- Inversely, custom tarifs and market protrction is counter economic.
- There is no alternative to this system.
- Money is just another commodity.
- No moral or ethical limits must be imposed to a free market, including slavery, murder, etc.
- Corruption and crime are necessary and desirable in a free market.
- Getting richer is the only aim of an individual.
- There is not such a thing called society
Paradoxically, they could only impose their gruesome ideology by capturing the State through threat, and bribery. Once dismantled they find out, they cannot use it anymore.
This abhorrent, distopian, totally barbaric ideollogy, proper to pirates and canibals, has and still is the Bible of western hegemonic think tanks and its global institutions. Conscription does not quite fit there, cause it would imply to rebirth the concept of "the public" interest, the State as a political collectiv entity. Both armies and states are now a manifestation of private interests, easily buyable and sellable as private armies. In the meantime, the developping drive could not totally disappear from Africa, Asia and South America. This is the real existential threat neoliberals are trying to address.
Don't insult pirates by comparing them to neoliberal scum.
*The Egalitarian and Democratic System of Pirates was way Ahead of its Time*
"According to Acosta, pirate ships had a strict checks and balance system and democratic policies akin to the Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution.
Usually, if not appointed by a higher authority sponsoring the ship, the Captain was elected; an assembly resembling the U.S. Congress was put together and the quartermaster acted as a judge to resolve disputes and keep the Captain in check. The charter was written up and signed by all of the sailors, and anyone who was disfigured or incapacitated during battle was compensated upon return to port.
As well a certain Pirate Code existed among captains and ships which detailed 11 guidelines for crew to follow in order to bring a semblance of order among what we commonly think of as lawless vagabonds.
Not all pirates were men. Laura Sook Duncombe has written a book, Pirate Women: The Princesses, Prostitutes, and Privateers Who Ruled the Seven Seas. Duncombe tells us that some women were attracted to piracy to escape the harsh rules women were required to follow. Others turned to piracy rather than the demeaning work of prostitution, because they had no other means of financial support.
Much of what we know about pirates comes to us from films and other elements of pop culture which have portrayed the crude, unintelligible version of the pirate. However evidence of their rules-based system and ahead-of-its-time democratic principles fly in the face of that notion."
As you can see, pirates were a much BIGGER threat to TPTB than just the loss of a handful of treasure ships.
They needed to make pirates, and their egalitarian ways, into monsters before the pirate ideals of real democracy spread within the greater public. Like with today's corporate state there is nothing they fear more than ideas of alternate/better ways of organizing society.
Whoa. You are getting ahead of yourself. Knowing basic population and demographic numbers is not as useful as it once was for estimating potential conscription numbers.
First we need to look into the 'draft pool'.
<b>77% of young Americans too fat, mentally ill, on drugs and more to join military, Pentagon study finds</b>
"Several key findings were noted in the summary of the report. For example, most ineligible youth (44 percent) are disqualified for multiple reasons rather than in only one area."
Yes, I only provided examples for the US empire, but if they are not putting boots on the ground, no other NATO nation will. Once the empire slithers home, the EU nations will suddenly remember their manners the next they talk to the Russians and they will be lining up to talk to them.
Reading this I get a mental image of US Army summer 'fat' camp/drug rehab/mental reprogramming efforts. Both hilarious and terrifying. I like Bill Murray for a lead role.
Conscription! That brings back memories. Back in the day every eighteen year old male in Sweden was wetted for two days by the military.
I managed to get kicked out of the wetting process on the first day, which made my friends very impressed. Being found unfit after the tests were over was uncommon, but it happened. Actively trying to be thrown out and succeeding, without being conspicuous enough to be sent to jail for refusal — that was quite an accomplishment.
Most of my friends weren’t as skilled as I was, so they ended up doing the service for a year.
P was made a guard. He never mentioned anything about shooting a gun, I don’t think he ever did. He spent his time in a boot, watching vcr and occasionally opening a gate by remote control. He was really into film, so he loved the military.
My friend F was sent to an air defence regiment. I think he actually received some kind of training, but on leave he got drunk and held up a fast food joint armed with a fork. He was convicted of armed robbery and thus kicked out of the military.
My friend K was placed in an elite regiment way up north. When given an AK he fired it before receiving instructions. The kickback knocked him unconscious, after which he was asked to kindly leave and not come back.
I think general conscription should be a requirement for membership of the UN: in today’s world it would make war virtually impossible.
Western governments -- especially Euro governments -- are dumb enough to try to implement conscription, creating all the issues that Aurelien point out. Let's not ignore the potential political consequences, and how those consequences could backfire on dumb Western governments.
If people are told they are being sent to fight in a far-off foreign country like the Ukraine, the enthusiasm for defending Ukrainian-style "democracy" will very rapidly evaporate. When individuals are told "You may die" for a wishy-washy cause, resistance is inevitable. Look at what happened in the US during the Vietnam era. Much of the anti-war movement was the children of privilege who did not want to be conscripted and have to put their own asses in danger. In today's fallen world, that reaction would be even stronger, and could quite conceivably lead to the downfall of any Western Political Class that tried to impose conscription.
I guess you could apply similar logic to the current mantra that Starmer seems to be cheerleading for spending 2.5% of GDP on “defence”. What threats are we worried about and what specific capabilities do we want to buy, for example?
State capability, at all levels, does seem to be in terminal decline in the west.
Additionally, how are 'we' going to ensure quality of product?
For example, the Daring class destroyers are badly underarmed i.e. not many missiles, and those of limited performance compared with others, they seem to spend at least half their time in dock and they were commissioned with design flaws (poorly fitting hatches, noisy propellors and non heat-tolerant machinery. Similar strictures apply to the two aircraft carriers whose short history is a litany of leaks and mechanical and training failures, and again, similarly, the Army's new armoured troop carrier. The RAF combat planes also seem to spend half their lives in repair, and are rapidly becoming obsolete, while never being able to match the capabilities of Russia or Chinese equivalents even when introduced.
I dunno, anyone who ever has been to Ukraine can recognize that it is shambolic and with a very low level of state function, yet Ukraine manages to carry through conscription even to the point of press-ganging citizens off the street in broad daylight.
Moreover, if conscription is so evidently unworkable in a western nominal democracy, why does nobody take a macron or a scholz aside and tell him that he's going to have to tell his American Master that he'd really like to carry out Master's commands but that the flesh is too weak?
Anyway, all that need be done is to freeze resisters to conscription's bank accounts, driver's licenses, etc.. Try living in a eurocountry without access to banking services. The resisters will quickly fold.
Legal? No, but who cares? Trudeau did much the same thing to break the trucker protests. After the protests were broken, it was found that Trudeau's actions were entirely illegal, but nobody did anything about this, no heads rolled. A wink and a nod.
yes, you can press gang people in broad daylight during a war. Ukr is a... 37%(?) gdp in defense spending. And in the middle of an actual war.
you have to convince a population that's... 1-2000km for any potential conflict to do this. Which is politically impossible. Also, good luck reaching even 3% in defense spending before being booted in the next elections.
it's this myth of.... basically, what I call the myth of the "barrier troops" that russians supposedly use.
russia in ww1 - knocked out because the army in the end mutinied. Germany in ww1 - same fate. In ww2 they smartened up and usually dropped it before the army mutinied :P
Even recently: iraqi army... "5th in the world" =)). Simply didn't fight Soon to probably follow: ukr army.
If your people don't want to fight, sorry, your "army" is manure. Frozen bank accounts or not. Yes, you'll get some number on paper. They'll be useless in the actual combat...
p.s. - also, ukr lost... 20%(?) of it's population. That fled. Or even more(I assume many crossed illegally and aren't in statistics).
there won't be any conscription... Ok, mainly because there's no infrastructure and probably noone left that's able to actually make it work =))
"yes, you can press gang people in broad daylight during a war. Ukr is a... 37%(?) gdp in defense spending. And in the middle of an actual war."
Canada wasn't in a war. Canadians quickly folded.
"you have to convince a population that's... 1-2000km for any potential conflict to do this. Which is politically impossible. Also, good luck reaching even 3% in defense spending before being booted in the next elections."
Why do you think Macron had the elections now, rather than after the conscription starts or the body bags start coming in? For that matter, what's to stop politicians from declaring a "state of emergency" and suspending elections, just like Ukraine?
"If your people don't want to fight, sorry, your "army" is manure. Frozen bank accounts or not. Yes, you'll get some number on paper. They'll be useless in the actual combat..."
Plenty of Ukrainians don't want to fight, either. Nobody asks them. As long as they can catch Russian munitions, then as far as Washington, Brussels and Kiev are concerned, then they have done served their sole purpose in life.
For that matter, I'm not sure what your examples of mutiny are trying to show, other than Russia in WWI, etc. don't have the state capacity that a france or germany has, and the mutinies happened after the armies in question were broken, not before.
body bags from what? France has 200 tanks; like... noone cares about France, sorry. There won't be any war outside Macron's head.
Macron wanted an election now to have FN governing and erode them before '27. Since a big crisis is coming. Sure, Macron being Macron, he actually managed to botch even his own "cunning" plan; by helping FN lose =))
my examples show that you can't make people fight if they're actively against fighting. Also "the state" is not some abstract notion; it's some actual people. Who are perfectly able to give you the boot via a coup when you cross too many lines.
I'm 90%+ sure it won't be the russians who'll kill zelensky. And I'm 99%+ sure he won't die in his bed either.
It's thousands of years of history saying the same thing: if your people don't want to fight, your army is good for parades and nothing more. Noone invented a solution to this "problem"; and I doubt we're on the edge of a breakthrough either.
p.s. - canadians quickly folded on a non issue. That noone cared about too much.
It's a difference between being told to stay at home(even if it's totally dumb) and being told to go die. Usually people have a pretty big problem with the last part.
OK, if France isn't going to intervene and is unable to meaningfully do so, why is it that nobody in the Champs d'Elysees can take Macron aside and tell him that the might want to quit letting his mouth write checks that his ass cannot cash? (As it is, Macron knows full well that the United States cannot leave France out to dry and will intervene in turn. The Americans know this as well.)
All your examples happened at the end of a war, not the beginning. To take one of them - Russia successfully introduced and managed conscription before the army fell apart in 1917. Find me an example of refusal to be conscripted preventing a war from starting, or expanding, please.
And are you telling us that the videos of press-ganged Ukrainians are all fake, since they don't want to fight?
And are you telling us that Canada had to violate its own constitution to stop protests over an issue that nobody cared about?
I don't see who on Champs Elysee is in a position to tell Macron what to do. He's president; in a presidential republic.
And probably everyone there is used by now to him acting like a clown. See the start of the war; when he was "negociating" despite the russians obviously ignoring him.
Also, US almost left the french out to dry in fking Libia. Which is rather far away from being the world biggest nuclear power.
regarding conscription: I'm not saying that conscription is impossible. There are hundreds and thousands of exxamples of states implementing conscription. What I'm saying is that it's possible in certain political contexts.
You can't expect to tell the french to be conscripted to go fight in ukraine; and that to actually work...
It's like me(eastern Europe) being told that Mexico attacked US and I should go fight in the US because we're nato. Like... good luck... Let alone that ukraine is not even in nato, nor will it be.
btw - who folded first in ww1? Russia, right? Even though on paper they had the biggest army of all by far.
Aka - exactly the ones who had no dog in the fight. Beside Nikki&co, I'm pretty sure the average russian couldn't care less about Verdun. Or the quarrel between germany and england.
"And are you telling us that Canada had to violate its own constitution to stop protests over an issue that nobody cared about?" - I really think you're abit overdramatizing. "Violate the constitution"...
yes, you can violate the constitution by telling me to stay at home. And giving me some money to do that. Or you can tell me to go to war. and maybe die
The Russian expeditionary Force fought in France during the First World War.
In April 1916, the first special brigade of Russian troops arrived in France, and in total more than 25 thousand soldiers and officers took part in the battles.
The corps mainly fought in Champagne near the city of Reims, participated in the Battle of Verdun and in the April 1917 offensive of the Entente.
I'm sure this is the first time you've heard about this. And I'm sure you're American
You really think that a nacron or a scholtz has no advisors? That, even if the president were to say "I don't care! Do it!" that they cannot leak to the press or otherwise work back channels to get their way?
And the United States did NOT leave the French out to dry in Libya. They intervened, even though much less credibility was on the line in Libya.
Anyway, for reasons I gave previously, it isn't the will of the people that matters. It is the will of the elites, and the elites would soon annihilate us all, rather than lose their perches.
I was in Ukraine, in Zaporozhye, 10 years ago. There was no chaos. Of course, compared to Moscow, there was a noticeable decline. But all the people were well educated and had jobs thanks to the legacy of the USSR. There were also enough weapons in Ukraine, since there was the most armed Western Military District under the Soviet Union.
The mobilization potential in Ukraine is significantly higher than in France or Great Britain for one reason - half or more of Ukrainian men served conscript service in the Soviet army.
Ukraine was never a Western liberal democracy to begging with.
Down here, politicians will fold even faster…
When a few thousand of young people decide to take the streets and burn down whatever they found on their way, including town halls, police stations and schools, police are not in sufficient number to restore order. And politicians are way too afraid of any escalation anyway. All they can do is bend the knee (literally !) and hope that young mobsters will go back home the sooner the better.
So if young people don't want to serve, they won't. And then if conscription is not mandatory, this is not conscription.
Unless politicians get a very talented PR firm to manufacture a good enough reason for youngsters to massively accept to serve in the army. But frankly, given the state of the country, I cannot imagine what the story could be.
In any case, if it comes to that, better count on volunteers and do with whatever number it gets.
In the mean time, conscription is just politician cheap talk to please people from an older generation. Or try to.
Ukraine certainly never was a western liberal democracy, and if we've seen nothing else, it is that the citizens of western liberal "democracies" are quicker to surrender to Big Brother.
Especially the notion that the various politicians calling for conscription have no idea or intention other than to fill a brief gap in internal political struggles by evoking a word which reminds people of the good old days when
One element you do not mention is birthrate decline, or only glancingly by reference to a population made up only temporary residents
It would be helpful if you could, instead of always detailing decline, point out the original foundations and functions of these european societies, and how successful they were, or indeed not, until the relatively recent past
As with the birthrate, the current problems an inevitable result of a misbegotten past
Fantastic overview of the abyss of ignorance yawning behind and under the claims of conscription as a serious option nowadays. I suppose it's theoretically possible that the current trajectory of society can be halted, we can retrain a few generations on how to think and live like it's (at least) 70 years ago, but even adopting this as a possible process, it will take TIME, that the west doesn't have for its obvious intentions - war, and soon.
This is another very good article and I would like to point out that Russia and Israel most recently suffered from the same illusion as western policymakers that future combat will be fought by highly professionalised, technologically advanced, militaries.
You can see the Russian army adopting the "Gerasimov Doctrine" which also called for greater use of technology and grey-zone forces working in Syria and parts of Africa. It fell apart in the failed invasion of Ukraine which called for mass mobilisation rather than a pincer strike by small forces.
The Israelis suffered even greater levels of delusion believing that a small, highly proficient, technologically developed military, can do the job instead of mass mobilisation of their armed forces. Indeed the length of conscription was cut in Israel and the creation of highly specialised special forces units proliferated. This doctrine died on October 7 when Israeli tanks had no infantry support and were literally overrun by cheap drones and thousands of Gazan terrorists, militants, and random people with AK-47s.
I do not blame policymakers for these errors because recent history played to their biases. Whether it was the expeditionary warfare of Africa or the Middle East, or Azerbaijan's technologically superior forces wiping out the Armenian forces in a short, one-sided, conflict. Recent history suggested that they could continue the court and that there was no need to implement unpopular policies.
What I find interesting is that Russia and Israel have the basic infrastructure and mental models to revert back and rapidly scale their militaries. Their political system has acknowledged the failures (although not all failures) and is implementing solutions to enable large scale, mass mobilised, warfare to recommence. Meanwhile, western nations are still under the illusion that they can do all the stuff their politicians and senior civil servants like to talk about without disrupting the lives of their overly comfortable societies. This western fakery is the culmination of a politico-media-civil servant class that has never had to face real challenges, trade-offs, or facing a brutal reality that cannot be washed away with a press release. Hence why conscription is not a serious idea but is played by politicians looking to secure a few extra votes. It's all part of political theatre.
Thanks for this post Aurelien I really enjoyed it. IMHO an additional challenge regarding conscription in NATO countries is the manner in which the Security clearance background checks are undertaken.
Most NATO equipment's specific performance and manner of operation is Secret level (or above). And there is two 'Secret' levels one for the specific Nation (in my experience Canada) and a corresponding NATO Secret (which comes after your own nation gives you secret clearance). So any conscript past the 12 week mark will likely require Secret clearance to be able to be trained on NATO grade equipment.
The government agency in charge of this could not possibly handle the increased flow or applications or vet all of the conscripts in a manner that would not mightily disrupt any training regime. It would have to grow overnight by multiple times its current size.
I know this is a 'detail' but sorting it out would require cooperation from the security apparatuses of basically all of NATO. For example if a Canadian conscript going to tanker school is provided with all of the detailed information on a Leopard II tank he requires to be proficient in its use, then he has to meet certain NATO-wide criteria for reliability and secrecy or that information on the Leopard II cannot be 'protected' from uncleared 'eyes'.
Well, even Sweden feels threatened enough by Russian invasion that they are going to make their army bigger: they promise to increase the head-count to 10 000 from the current 8000, and this feat is accomplished by 2030. Oh, the sacrifices Swedes are willing to make! Of course, none of that pesky planning Aurelien describing is necessary, just hating the evil Russkies is quite enough to defeat them by our sheer willpower. We have just not been hating enough, so the media is working overtime producing all sorts of shady incidences that possibly could be attributed to hybrid war/threat whatever. Sadly, the hate and threat rhethoric has historically workd quite well in fomenting a war - the ability to carry it on, and even be somewhat successful, is another matter entirely.
And out of the 8000 only 5000 are soldiers or sailors. So if you add 2000 personnel, you’re only adding a little more than 1000 actual fighters.
I agree. Sound words
This essay was specially written for the NATO anniversary Summit. There is only one conclusion from all that I have read - China and Russia have nothing to fear.
But Europeans do have somerthing to fear.
The unelected elite really wants war. As have been obvious since the covid-years, you dying may actually be the plan.
Since the NATO-representatives couldn’t imagine the level of violence in Ukraine, when Russia operates with the gloves on, how are they going to plan for a war when Russia takes the gloves off? Remember that Russia saw Ukraine as brotherly and to an extent as the same people. They do not have this feeling for any Nordic or other West European countries. They will bomb the infrastructure to smithereens immediately, just like the US did in Iraq and Israel in Gaza, to spread famine, thirst, disease and death. Just more competently.
You appear to be discussing RF bombing of European countries - this is unlikely, but maybe you could give some reasons for stating this
Unlikely mainly because although some EU leaders say they want war, to prolong and to expand the current proxy engagements, and even to enter directly into war, they do very little, as Aurélien points out, and can do very little by way of even beginning preparations
Even less their peoples do or will
As for the unelected EU Commission and Council - read their speeches at the recent Berlin reconstruction conference - the dominant females, VdL, KK, Barebock, in chorus said that the best and the only support they could give Ukraine was the prospect of speedy EU membership
If you think there's no possible lower value operational intelligence than the European national élites, try the EUCs
I really like that idea, but I think you miss the big point. Europe's leadership is completely owned by the same people who own Americas leadership - from grade school education to movies to elite universities to every law court and doctors offices and everything else.
No, the European people are not going to rise up and fight Russia. The globalist government aperatachik will receive an envelope with cash and instructions to invite US nuclear capable missiles.
The EU ruling class as the governing class hired hands, the lawyers etc have fused with the US equivalents
The ruling class, the 'leaders', are already US, with passports green cards think tank university contracts, mothers wives and husbands, their children at Yale
They all speaky yankee don't you know
(look it up -it's true)
That one or two politicians, say Orban or Marine le Pen, appear they stamp their feet with frustration, call them Putin, and colour rev them
The poor peoples have started getting a clue as to what a bad deal they got, but it'll take a lot more poverty and chaos, a lot more police stating, before someone starts to kill them
The political ideology of the west is still Neoliberal capitalism, with a good deal of malthusianism inside. After the total defeat of the working class, the neoliberal priests dont need to rant or proclaim their mantra. It has already been assymilated. But let me refresh some of the liberal dogma lies:
- there is a hidden hand who automatically regulates the markets.
- A free market is the best solution for economic development and efficiency.
- Inversely, custom tarifs and market protrction is counter economic.
- There is no alternative to this system.
- Money is just another commodity.
- No moral or ethical limits must be imposed to a free market, including slavery, murder, etc.
- Corruption and crime are necessary and desirable in a free market.
- Getting richer is the only aim of an individual.
- There is not such a thing called society
Paradoxically, they could only impose their gruesome ideology by capturing the State through threat, and bribery. Once dismantled they find out, they cannot use it anymore.
This abhorrent, distopian, totally barbaric ideollogy, proper to pirates and canibals, has and still is the Bible of western hegemonic think tanks and its global institutions. Conscription does not quite fit there, cause it would imply to rebirth the concept of "the public" interest, the State as a political collectiv entity. Both armies and states are now a manifestation of private interests, easily buyable and sellable as private armies. In the meantime, the developping drive could not totally disappear from Africa, Asia and South America. This is the real existential threat neoliberals are trying to address.
Don't insult pirates by comparing them to neoliberal scum.
*The Egalitarian and Democratic System of Pirates was way Ahead of its Time*
"According to Acosta, pirate ships had a strict checks and balance system and democratic policies akin to the Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution.
Usually, if not appointed by a higher authority sponsoring the ship, the Captain was elected; an assembly resembling the U.S. Congress was put together and the quartermaster acted as a judge to resolve disputes and keep the Captain in check. The charter was written up and signed by all of the sailors, and anyone who was disfigured or incapacitated during battle was compensated upon return to port.
As well a certain Pirate Code existed among captains and ships which detailed 11 guidelines for crew to follow in order to bring a semblance of order among what we commonly think of as lawless vagabonds.
Not all pirates were men. Laura Sook Duncombe has written a book, Pirate Women: The Princesses, Prostitutes, and Privateers Who Ruled the Seven Seas. Duncombe tells us that some women were attracted to piracy to escape the harsh rules women were required to follow. Others turned to piracy rather than the demeaning work of prostitution, because they had no other means of financial support.
Much of what we know about pirates comes to us from films and other elements of pop culture which have portrayed the crude, unintelligible version of the pirate. However evidence of their rules-based system and ahead-of-its-time democratic principles fly in the face of that notion."
.
https://www.thevintagenews.com/2019/04/07/democratic-pirates/
As you can see, pirates were a much BIGGER threat to TPTB than just the loss of a handful of treasure ships.
They needed to make pirates, and their egalitarian ways, into monsters before the pirate ideals of real democracy spread within the greater public. Like with today's corporate state there is nothing they fear more than ideas of alternate/better ways of organizing society.
Whoa. You are getting ahead of yourself. Knowing basic population and demographic numbers is not as useful as it once was for estimating potential conscription numbers.
First we need to look into the 'draft pool'.
<b>77% of young Americans too fat, mentally ill, on drugs and more to join military, Pentagon study finds</b>
"Several key findings were noted in the summary of the report. For example, most ineligible youth (44 percent) are disqualified for multiple reasons rather than in only one area."
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2023/03/77-of-young-americans-too-fat-mentally-ill-on-drugs-and-more-to-join-military-pentagon-study-finds/
No worries, they can put them through basic training they will come out looking just like the regular soldiers.
<b>Nearly 70% of US Soldiers Overweight or Obese: Report</b>
"The statistic reportedly poses a considerable problem for the US military, as obesity decreases soldiers’ combat readiness.
Based on fitness tests, active-duty service members who are overweight exhibit less speed and agility than those with normal BMIs.
They also leave the service 18 months earlier on average than soldiers of normal weight.
.
There are reportedly 1.4 million active military personnel in the US. The ASP report shows nearly one million are overweight or obese."
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/10/16/us-soldiers-overweight-obese/
Things are so bad it's forced the US Marines to change the lyrics of the "Marines' Hymn" .
From the Halls of Piazza Hut
To the Drive-Thru of K-F-C
We gulp our country's fast-foods
In the air, on land, and sea;
First to fight for sauce and cheese-fries
And to lick our plates clean;
We are proud to claim the title
Of United States Marine.
I bet the new recruits will be proud to serve the Nation Deepstate.
<b>72% of Americans would not fight for their country, poll shows</b>
A new poll shows that 72% of American voters would not be willing to volunteer to fight for their country if the United States faced a major conflict.
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2023/11/72-of-americans-would-not-fight-for-their-country-poll-shows/
Yes, I only provided examples for the US empire, but if they are not putting boots on the ground, no other NATO nation will. Once the empire slithers home, the EU nations will suddenly remember their manners the next they talk to the Russians and they will be lining up to talk to them.
Reading this I get a mental image of US Army summer 'fat' camp/drug rehab/mental reprogramming efforts. Both hilarious and terrifying. I like Bill Murray for a lead role.
Conscription! That brings back memories. Back in the day every eighteen year old male in Sweden was wetted for two days by the military.
I managed to get kicked out of the wetting process on the first day, which made my friends very impressed. Being found unfit after the tests were over was uncommon, but it happened. Actively trying to be thrown out and succeeding, without being conspicuous enough to be sent to jail for refusal — that was quite an accomplishment.
Most of my friends weren’t as skilled as I was, so they ended up doing the service for a year.
P was made a guard. He never mentioned anything about shooting a gun, I don’t think he ever did. He spent his time in a boot, watching vcr and occasionally opening a gate by remote control. He was really into film, so he loved the military.
My friend F was sent to an air defence regiment. I think he actually received some kind of training, but on leave he got drunk and held up a fast food joint armed with a fork. He was convicted of armed robbery and thus kicked out of the military.
My friend K was placed in an elite regiment way up north. When given an AK he fired it before receiving instructions. The kickback knocked him unconscious, after which he was asked to kindly leave and not come back.
I think general conscription should be a requirement for membership of the UN: in today’s world it would make war virtually impossible.
Western governments -- especially Euro governments -- are dumb enough to try to implement conscription, creating all the issues that Aurelien point out. Let's not ignore the potential political consequences, and how those consequences could backfire on dumb Western governments.
If people are told they are being sent to fight in a far-off foreign country like the Ukraine, the enthusiasm for defending Ukrainian-style "democracy" will very rapidly evaporate. When individuals are told "You may die" for a wishy-washy cause, resistance is inevitable. Look at what happened in the US during the Vietnam era. Much of the anti-war movement was the children of privilege who did not want to be conscripted and have to put their own asses in danger. In today's fallen world, that reaction would be even stronger, and could quite conceivably lead to the downfall of any Western Political Class that tried to impose conscription.
The best military can clear the field and defeat any enemy and still lose - all you have to do is to give it a poorly-formulated objective.
Thank you Aurelien🙏
Great essay.
I guess you could apply similar logic to the current mantra that Starmer seems to be cheerleading for spending 2.5% of GDP on “defence”. What threats are we worried about and what specific capabilities do we want to buy, for example?
State capability, at all levels, does seem to be in terminal decline in the west.
Additionally, how are 'we' going to ensure quality of product?
For example, the Daring class destroyers are badly underarmed i.e. not many missiles, and those of limited performance compared with others, they seem to spend at least half their time in dock and they were commissioned with design flaws (poorly fitting hatches, noisy propellors and non heat-tolerant machinery. Similar strictures apply to the two aircraft carriers whose short history is a litany of leaks and mechanical and training failures, and again, similarly, the Army's new armoured troop carrier. The RAF combat planes also seem to spend half their lives in repair, and are rapidly becoming obsolete, while never being able to match the capabilities of Russia or Chinese equivalents even when introduced.
Similar problems are displayed by US machines.
Ah but the F35 is a world beater, LOL.
Thanks for these facts
I dunno, anyone who ever has been to Ukraine can recognize that it is shambolic and with a very low level of state function, yet Ukraine manages to carry through conscription even to the point of press-ganging citizens off the street in broad daylight.
Moreover, if conscription is so evidently unworkable in a western nominal democracy, why does nobody take a macron or a scholz aside and tell him that he's going to have to tell his American Master that he'd really like to carry out Master's commands but that the flesh is too weak?
Anyway, all that need be done is to freeze resisters to conscription's bank accounts, driver's licenses, etc.. Try living in a eurocountry without access to banking services. The resisters will quickly fold.
Legal? No, but who cares? Trudeau did much the same thing to break the trucker protests. After the protests were broken, it was found that Trudeau's actions were entirely illegal, but nobody did anything about this, no heads rolled. A wink and a nod.
yes, you can press gang people in broad daylight during a war. Ukr is a... 37%(?) gdp in defense spending. And in the middle of an actual war.
you have to convince a population that's... 1-2000km for any potential conflict to do this. Which is politically impossible. Also, good luck reaching even 3% in defense spending before being booted in the next elections.
it's this myth of.... basically, what I call the myth of the "barrier troops" that russians supposedly use.
russia in ww1 - knocked out because the army in the end mutinied. Germany in ww1 - same fate. In ww2 they smartened up and usually dropped it before the army mutinied :P
Even recently: iraqi army... "5th in the world" =)). Simply didn't fight Soon to probably follow: ukr army.
If your people don't want to fight, sorry, your "army" is manure. Frozen bank accounts or not. Yes, you'll get some number on paper. They'll be useless in the actual combat...
p.s. - also, ukr lost... 20%(?) of it's population. That fled. Or even more(I assume many crossed illegally and aren't in statistics).
there won't be any conscription... Ok, mainly because there's no infrastructure and probably noone left that's able to actually make it work =))
"yes, you can press gang people in broad daylight during a war. Ukr is a... 37%(?) gdp in defense spending. And in the middle of an actual war."
Canada wasn't in a war. Canadians quickly folded.
"you have to convince a population that's... 1-2000km for any potential conflict to do this. Which is politically impossible. Also, good luck reaching even 3% in defense spending before being booted in the next elections."
Why do you think Macron had the elections now, rather than after the conscription starts or the body bags start coming in? For that matter, what's to stop politicians from declaring a "state of emergency" and suspending elections, just like Ukraine?
"If your people don't want to fight, sorry, your "army" is manure. Frozen bank accounts or not. Yes, you'll get some number on paper. They'll be useless in the actual combat..."
Plenty of Ukrainians don't want to fight, either. Nobody asks them. As long as they can catch Russian munitions, then as far as Washington, Brussels and Kiev are concerned, then they have done served their sole purpose in life.
For that matter, I'm not sure what your examples of mutiny are trying to show, other than Russia in WWI, etc. don't have the state capacity that a france or germany has, and the mutinies happened after the armies in question were broken, not before.
body bags from what? France has 200 tanks; like... noone cares about France, sorry. There won't be any war outside Macron's head.
Macron wanted an election now to have FN governing and erode them before '27. Since a big crisis is coming. Sure, Macron being Macron, he actually managed to botch even his own "cunning" plan; by helping FN lose =))
my examples show that you can't make people fight if they're actively against fighting. Also "the state" is not some abstract notion; it's some actual people. Who are perfectly able to give you the boot via a coup when you cross too many lines.
I'm 90%+ sure it won't be the russians who'll kill zelensky. And I'm 99%+ sure he won't die in his bed either.
It's thousands of years of history saying the same thing: if your people don't want to fight, your army is good for parades and nothing more. Noone invented a solution to this "problem"; and I doubt we're on the edge of a breakthrough either.
p.s. - canadians quickly folded on a non issue. That noone cared about too much.
It's a difference between being told to stay at home(even if it's totally dumb) and being told to go die. Usually people have a pretty big problem with the last part.
OK, if France isn't going to intervene and is unable to meaningfully do so, why is it that nobody in the Champs d'Elysees can take Macron aside and tell him that the might want to quit letting his mouth write checks that his ass cannot cash? (As it is, Macron knows full well that the United States cannot leave France out to dry and will intervene in turn. The Americans know this as well.)
All your examples happened at the end of a war, not the beginning. To take one of them - Russia successfully introduced and managed conscription before the army fell apart in 1917. Find me an example of refusal to be conscripted preventing a war from starting, or expanding, please.
And are you telling us that the videos of press-ganged Ukrainians are all fake, since they don't want to fight?
And are you telling us that Canada had to violate its own constitution to stop protests over an issue that nobody cared about?
I don't see who on Champs Elysee is in a position to tell Macron what to do. He's president; in a presidential republic.
And probably everyone there is used by now to him acting like a clown. See the start of the war; when he was "negociating" despite the russians obviously ignoring him.
Also, US almost left the french out to dry in fking Libia. Which is rather far away from being the world biggest nuclear power.
regarding conscription: I'm not saying that conscription is impossible. There are hundreds and thousands of exxamples of states implementing conscription. What I'm saying is that it's possible in certain political contexts.
You can't expect to tell the french to be conscripted to go fight in ukraine; and that to actually work...
It's like me(eastern Europe) being told that Mexico attacked US and I should go fight in the US because we're nato. Like... good luck... Let alone that ukraine is not even in nato, nor will it be.
btw - who folded first in ww1? Russia, right? Even though on paper they had the biggest army of all by far.
Aka - exactly the ones who had no dog in the fight. Beside Nikki&co, I'm pretty sure the average russian couldn't care less about Verdun. Or the quarrel between germany and england.
"And are you telling us that Canada had to violate its own constitution to stop protests over an issue that nobody cared about?" - I really think you're abit overdramatizing. "Violate the constitution"...
yes, you can violate the constitution by telling me to stay at home. And giving me some money to do that. Or you can tell me to go to war. and maybe die
Umm... very hard choice :P
You are feeding a troll
Lol )
The Russian expeditionary Force fought in France during the First World War.
In April 1916, the first special brigade of Russian troops arrived in France, and in total more than 25 thousand soldiers and officers took part in the battles.
The corps mainly fought in Champagne near the city of Reims, participated in the Battle of Verdun and in the April 1917 offensive of the Entente.
I'm sure this is the first time you've heard about this. And I'm sure you're American
You really think that a nacron or a scholtz has no advisors? That, even if the president were to say "I don't care! Do it!" that they cannot leak to the press or otherwise work back channels to get their way?
And the United States did NOT leave the French out to dry in Libya. They intervened, even though much less credibility was on the line in Libya.
Anyway, for reasons I gave previously, it isn't the will of the people that matters. It is the will of the elites, and the elites would soon annihilate us all, rather than lose their perches.
I was in Ukraine, in Zaporozhye, 10 years ago. There was no chaos. Of course, compared to Moscow, there was a noticeable decline. But all the people were well educated and had jobs thanks to the legacy of the USSR. There were also enough weapons in Ukraine, since there was the most armed Western Military District under the Soviet Union.
I lived much of my adult life in Ukraine.
I've bribed everyone from the fire department up through members of the Council Of Ministers. I know whereof I speak.
The mobilization potential in Ukraine is significantly higher than in France or Great Britain for one reason - half or more of Ukrainian men served conscript service in the Soviet army.
And there weren't any conscripts in, for example, germany or Poland?
Frankly, the argument sounds like grasping at straws.
Честно говоря, давай не передергивай. Ты сам наверняка не служил и тебе не больше 40 лет
Можешь думать, что хочешь.
That explains your stupid and provocative trolling over an otherwise interesting portion of the internet.
Come try press gangs on an armed populace!
Hum...
Ukraine was never a Western liberal democracy to begging with.
Down here, politicians will fold even faster…
When a few thousand of young people decide to take the streets and burn down whatever they found on their way, including town halls, police stations and schools, police are not in sufficient number to restore order. And politicians are way too afraid of any escalation anyway. All they can do is bend the knee (literally !) and hope that young mobsters will go back home the sooner the better.
So if young people don't want to serve, they won't. And then if conscription is not mandatory, this is not conscription.
Unless politicians get a very talented PR firm to manufacture a good enough reason for youngsters to massively accept to serve in the army. But frankly, given the state of the country, I cannot imagine what the story could be.
In any case, if it comes to that, better count on volunteers and do with whatever number it gets.
In the mean time, conscription is just politician cheap talk to please people from an older generation. Or try to.
Ukraine certainly never was a western liberal democracy, and if we've seen nothing else, it is that the citizens of western liberal "democracies" are quicker to surrender to Big Brother.
I guess so...
This is very well written and is convincing
Especially the notion that the various politicians calling for conscription have no idea or intention other than to fill a brief gap in internal political struggles by evoking a word which reminds people of the good old days when
One element you do not mention is birthrate decline, or only glancingly by reference to a population made up only temporary residents
It would be helpful if you could, instead of always detailing decline, point out the original foundations and functions of these european societies, and how successful they were, or indeed not, until the relatively recent past
As with the birthrate, the current problems an inevitable result of a misbegotten past
Fantastic overview of the abyss of ignorance yawning behind and under the claims of conscription as a serious option nowadays. I suppose it's theoretically possible that the current trajectory of society can be halted, we can retrain a few generations on how to think and live like it's (at least) 70 years ago, but even adopting this as a possible process, it will take TIME, that the west doesn't have for its obvious intentions - war, and soon.
Nice attention to what conscription means.
Your detail is breathtaking , and fit as a fiddle..
Thank you. I've long argued western elites are deeply stupid and deeply ignorant. The conscription hook is a good place to hang that hat.
This is another very good article and I would like to point out that Russia and Israel most recently suffered from the same illusion as western policymakers that future combat will be fought by highly professionalised, technologically advanced, militaries.
You can see the Russian army adopting the "Gerasimov Doctrine" which also called for greater use of technology and grey-zone forces working in Syria and parts of Africa. It fell apart in the failed invasion of Ukraine which called for mass mobilisation rather than a pincer strike by small forces.
The Israelis suffered even greater levels of delusion believing that a small, highly proficient, technologically developed military, can do the job instead of mass mobilisation of their armed forces. Indeed the length of conscription was cut in Israel and the creation of highly specialised special forces units proliferated. This doctrine died on October 7 when Israeli tanks had no infantry support and were literally overrun by cheap drones and thousands of Gazan terrorists, militants, and random people with AK-47s.
I do not blame policymakers for these errors because recent history played to their biases. Whether it was the expeditionary warfare of Africa or the Middle East, or Azerbaijan's technologically superior forces wiping out the Armenian forces in a short, one-sided, conflict. Recent history suggested that they could continue the court and that there was no need to implement unpopular policies.
What I find interesting is that Russia and Israel have the basic infrastructure and mental models to revert back and rapidly scale their militaries. Their political system has acknowledged the failures (although not all failures) and is implementing solutions to enable large scale, mass mobilised, warfare to recommence. Meanwhile, western nations are still under the illusion that they can do all the stuff their politicians and senior civil servants like to talk about without disrupting the lives of their overly comfortable societies. This western fakery is the culmination of a politico-media-civil servant class that has never had to face real challenges, trade-offs, or facing a brutal reality that cannot be washed away with a press release. Hence why conscription is not a serious idea but is played by politicians looking to secure a few extra votes. It's all part of political theatre.
Thanks for this post Aurelien I really enjoyed it. IMHO an additional challenge regarding conscription in NATO countries is the manner in which the Security clearance background checks are undertaken.
Most NATO equipment's specific performance and manner of operation is Secret level (or above). And there is two 'Secret' levels one for the specific Nation (in my experience Canada) and a corresponding NATO Secret (which comes after your own nation gives you secret clearance). So any conscript past the 12 week mark will likely require Secret clearance to be able to be trained on NATO grade equipment.
The government agency in charge of this could not possibly handle the increased flow or applications or vet all of the conscripts in a manner that would not mightily disrupt any training regime. It would have to grow overnight by multiple times its current size.
I know this is a 'detail' but sorting it out would require cooperation from the security apparatuses of basically all of NATO. For example if a Canadian conscript going to tanker school is provided with all of the detailed information on a Leopard II tank he requires to be proficient in its use, then he has to meet certain NATO-wide criteria for reliability and secrecy or that information on the Leopard II cannot be 'protected' from uncleared 'eyes'.