This is all very good stuff Señor Aurelien, the sort of deep but practical political thinking that you just don't see in the mainstream media. I'm sure that in the past you have sat at the big table in the committee room and read the briefing documents, but once you get pushed to the fringes you can see many things and say many more things that were not previously possible.
I have for sometime now been interested in the process by which some clan or cult or underground society rises from the fringe to the center of political power. Gaining the monopoly on the use of legitimate violence is of course the key, but only the final result, The power of violence comes first before it becomes legitimated later.
This is the old old story of the mandate of heaven, after the battle the winner is king and the loser is an outlaw, so the bandit becomes emperor and the emperor a bandit. We can see this in the deep roots of our own King Charles III today. How many generations did it take for the Viking raiders to become Dukes of Normandy and then Kings of France and England ? They never gave up the sword and the axe and after each victory they became more powerful and more legitimate.
Now we don't really tolerate Norsemen sailing their longboats over the North sea to sack villages anymore but the dynamic is still the same, just more underground. There are plenty of men living half in and half out of the shadows very comfortable with the sword and the pistol who will move into a power vacuum when the opportunity presents itself.
Closer to our own time, Dr. Sun Yat Sen used the underground criminal networks of the Tongmen "Heaven & Earth" Triads to knock off the ailing Qing dynasty and become the first president of China. He is still revered today by both the Red and Blue Chinese and his tomb is a great shrine situated on the same sacred mountain as the tombs of the ancient Ming emperors.
As for bandit warlords today who are on the cusp of becoming legitimate kings, you have already mentioned Hezbollah and other factions of militant Islam, the history of their religion gives them an obvious path to political legitimacy.
Another cluster of underground bandits that might have a path to gaining real political power are the Narco gangs of south America, now operating on both sides of the Rio Grande. They have shown the ability to mobilize thousands of soldiers or "Sicarios", armed with modern weapons, riding armored vehicles, equipped with sophisticated communications, and so on and so on. They certainly have assassinated many government officials, so it's fair to assume they have de-facto arrangements with many more. Start with a local businessman, then a city Alderman, then the Mayor, then Governor, Senator, and so on and so on and so on.
After the election the criminal becomes the Chief of Police and the Chief of Police becomes a criminal.
Interesting - I have read (Dmitry Orlov) that during the collapse of the USSR, the societal breakdown resulted in many areas in exactly what you describe when you say that, if the Islamists or the drug dealers are the ones with the power to protect you, then they are the ones who will get your loyalty. Interesting also that, over time, at least some of those outlaw groups gradually migrated to positions of comparatively legitimate power, and formed the basis of new societal order. In this context, at least some of what we regard in the light of "good" and "evil" has more to do with practical concerns of survival.
It reminds me on the words of Col. D. MacGregor in his todays interview on his YT canal.
Foccussing on your topic :
- Disruption of the west European continent-, especially its military capabilities, and even its “decomposition” ( á la the old STASI method of “Zersetzung”) from within using cultural Marxism IS ONE OF THE TOP REQUIREMENTS for the so called “Great Reset” the WEF-DAVOS-Satanist Clique has envisioned. – Sadly, you stopped there and left that out of your sight. When a matter of such far reaching consequenses as a nations, even a continents, military is touched there are aims the major players have in mind. In politics nothing comes without an intent.
- As Klaus Schwab, the Mother-WEF-er himself, declard so loudly : they have in all of the + 200 nations on earth THEIR People installed in the power apparatuses. And not only did/ and does- their cultural Marxism work, it is also the syncronicity with which they operate : Be reminded of the outbreak of the so called Corona scam-pandemic : Nearly the same measures in all of the + 200 nations on earth at ONCE. THAT was one show of who-is-who. Meaning : after the end that you foresee there IS very much more to come. And if we all do not want THAT, well, then better get started sooner.
- One of the nightmare scenarios you described : the drug cartels as warlords to which people have to go if they wish some level of protection and safety on future planning. I I would rather call that the Mad-Max-World. Exactly this is what the WEF-ers would love to see : as they assume people would turn to them for “help” and stability. Thereby accepting all measures that would be considered unacceptable before.
- Result : I rather suggest that, instead of thinking through a possible instable world, it is advisable to erect now in everydays small steps a world that makes the national-& international superstructures and companies, the oligarchs, the finance giants such as Blackrock at. al. unnecessary. Have that alternate form of existence thought through and developed. And I am not only thinking only about all-day-cash-day, or going local and creating local currencies. Coming to military security : WE ALL, it seems to me, should – in these terms – talk also about the recent assault on the health of all of the earths populace by a handful of oligarchs who like to drastically reduce population by 15 out of 16. THAT is the real security matter.
Just for the interested reader : An answer to the question : “ How did we get here ?” is given by : Whitney Webb. Just look her up, for instance her recent interviews on the two volume book about the national security and – control state in the US.
Another factor to consider is wokeness in what is left of western militaries. The constituent ethnicities of Western nations and especially their heterosexual, male portions have taken notice of it - They are signing up in ever diminishing numbers. The US army was said yo have wound up 25% short of its recruiting target in 2022 and that includes all non-combat positions. The shortcome was probably more than 25% if considering only combat positions. The situation is exacerbated, of course, by birth rates in these ethnicties that are not only low but often catastrophically so. The consequence is less and less of a heterosexual, male, ethnic core to these militaries like the one that used to be their mainstay and backbone above all else. What Western "nations" end up with are oh-so "diverse" militaries and paramilitaries permeated by homosexuals, femininity, ethnic and religious tensions, gang members and the like, all to the point of outright subversion. It stands to reason that these militaries might break down rapidly if required to deploy in a high-intensity, high-casualty situation like the one currently unfolding in Ukraine. The West is getting away with it only by placing the load of going to fight and taking casualties on allies that haven't been affected by wokeness to the same degree - chiefly Ukraine itself, Poland, Romania, Georgia.
Good article. I have argued that it will be Russia as the premier state of the 21st century because Russia has energy, food production, resources, an educated workforce, an industrial base,. and a population with direct memory of suffering and privation China does not have liquid fuel energy, and limited land to feed the population. The United States and Canada also have the necessary elements, except for a population familiar with suffering, and unless and until that population understands they need to take a drastic change in standard of living nothing will happen. However, I think it is wrong to assume that the United States is unable to vastly retool all industry, and build such industry, if it so chooses. That is the thing that makes the United States so dangerous, this ability to suddenly shift when the need become clear. Pwrhaps that ability lies now in the past, but this ia a huge assumption.
I only take exception to this statement: "It’s not simply that the industrial capability to produce weapons in volume no longer exists; it’s also impossible to recreate it without divine intervention, and it’s also impossible, as things stand, to see the re-creation of the massive organisational, technological and support structures it would need."
This is accurate only under peacetime conditions. Any of the Western nations, should they elect to fully mobilize, could get on the path to resolving the military industrial problem.
The issue is that Western militaries' focus is, to a very significant extent, also a hack to run up huge budgets without forcing societal participation and/or approval. Without this explicit support, what's left are LIC type "wars" and MIC-driven expensive toys.
Explicit support is needed to redirect energy, metals, manpower and money from population scale snivel gear to industrial warfare scales of artillery shells, missiles, rockets and bullets. The EPA wrote a report on the US explosives industry of 1971 - the height of the Vietnam war. The industry consumed 198 bcm of natural gas and the equivalent of 8.4 Terawatt hours of energy overall. 198 bcm is more than 3/4 of the Russian natural gas supplied to Europe in 2021, 50 years later.
This was certainly a very significant percentage of US energy consumption that year; redirecting this scale of energy into ammunition can't be done without materially impacting standards of living, hence the need for explicit approval and/or mobilization of the population.
A great assessment of the current situation. However, perhaps saying:
"Western aircraft could successfully gain and hold air superiority against, say Russia or China, provided the enemy agreed to limit the engagements strictly to air-to-air combat out of the range of anti-aircraft missiles."
Even without the presence of ground-to-air missiles, all US aircraft are now inferior to similar Russian and Chinese planes. in most ways The only advantage the US has over Russia is in numbers (- if they could get them to Europe in a war situation), and as for China, not even that. EU forces are hardly worth mentioning, they are even more disadvantaged in all ways.
US armaments are produced to make profits - Russian and Chinese for effective defence. There is a long and ever growing list of failures in US armaments. A sample would include:
F-35 - vastly inferior in speed, range, manoeuvrability etc. to any enemy it is likely to meet, and still not fully certified for combat, ongoing and increasing list of faults and problems, difficult to maintain,
F-22 - production cancelled early because of cost, low availability because of very high maintenance, unable to be easily upgraded, (B-1 bomber - similar)
'Littoral Combat' ships - unable to do the job intended, inadequate armament, 'literally' falling to pieces as they sail,
New super-carriers - lifts don't work, launch system doesn't work, etc.
Abrams tank - proved vulnerable to IED's in Iraq, turbine power uses much more fuel than diesel
"the industrial capability to produce weapons in volume no longer exists; it’s also impossible to recreate it without divine intervention" touché... I very much doubt He will intervene
I know it may be a flawed comparison, but the wests military capabilities seem to match Japan c.1940. Some outstanding individual weapons and units (especially in the Navy), but without the industrial capacity to back them up. In launching their Pacific War, Japan were entirely dependent on their small collection destroyers, carriers, super battleships and Zeroes to smash the western powers in a series of rapid blows. But once it turned into a war of attrition they had no chance whatever.
The Japanese were at least aware of this and has a sort-of strategy to avoid it (although obviously that strategy depended on Washington being weak, impulsive and stupid, which is entirely reasonable, but not an assumption you should base your countries future upon). I do wonder how much policy makers in the West are aware that other powers have strategies too, and are perfectly aware of the strengths and weaknesses of the US military (as Europes military hardly counts much these days).
Of course, it may be that the Chinese (for example) might be stupid enough to try to trade blows on equal terms with the USAF and USN, but I very much doubt it.
Just wanted to say how lucky I feel to stumble upon this blog. Your measured thought-provoking intellectual style is in stark contrast to the majority of information and analytics sources these days. Sometimes I find myself wanting to read you more frequently, but then I feel that if you were writing more frequently then it would not give me enough time to digest previous articles. Thanks a lot, good sir!
In addition to the factors mentioned, Europe also no longer has the industrial capacity to rearm; while Russian energy may once again be flowing westward, albeit via Turkey or other middlemen, it is unlikely to be in sufficient quantities to enable Europe to reindustrialize to the point where it once again could pose a military threat to Russia. All blessings in disguise, yet more protection against any inclination to military adventurism, we may hope.
While the external dynamics of Europe to come are intriguing, to me they dissappear into the background of the internal power dynamics you describe, where essentially rival paramilitary groups divided along neo-ethnic lines are the future. Highly technical security forces in the capital cores, Moslem gangs running the suburbs of most major cities and autochtone groups operating in the countryside. Most of the groups being to some extent financed externally and used to direct the politics of the failed states.
Ie, western Europe being transformed into Lebanon, with eastern Europe acting as the centre of power.
I do wonder if you yourself see this as the most likely scenario or if you have something to add as to the future internal power dynamics?
The US has neglected investing in the traditional "hardware" of warfare and instead focused its efforts on cyber warfare and genotype-targeted biological warfare. The COVID-19 plandemic and democide by "vaccine" was just a test run. Stay tuned, there are more, deadlier ones to be unleashed.
Celine's First Law readeth thusly:
"National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity."
Or, as Madeline Albright croaked: "What's the point of this incredible military you've got, if you don't use it?"
“To be America’s enemy is dangerous,
but to be her friend is fatal.” – Henry Kissinger.
NATO countries are hopeless.
This is all very good stuff Señor Aurelien, the sort of deep but practical political thinking that you just don't see in the mainstream media. I'm sure that in the past you have sat at the big table in the committee room and read the briefing documents, but once you get pushed to the fringes you can see many things and say many more things that were not previously possible.
I have for sometime now been interested in the process by which some clan or cult or underground society rises from the fringe to the center of political power. Gaining the monopoly on the use of legitimate violence is of course the key, but only the final result, The power of violence comes first before it becomes legitimated later.
This is the old old story of the mandate of heaven, after the battle the winner is king and the loser is an outlaw, so the bandit becomes emperor and the emperor a bandit. We can see this in the deep roots of our own King Charles III today. How many generations did it take for the Viking raiders to become Dukes of Normandy and then Kings of France and England ? They never gave up the sword and the axe and after each victory they became more powerful and more legitimate.
Now we don't really tolerate Norsemen sailing their longboats over the North sea to sack villages anymore but the dynamic is still the same, just more underground. There are plenty of men living half in and half out of the shadows very comfortable with the sword and the pistol who will move into a power vacuum when the opportunity presents itself.
Closer to our own time, Dr. Sun Yat Sen used the underground criminal networks of the Tongmen "Heaven & Earth" Triads to knock off the ailing Qing dynasty and become the first president of China. He is still revered today by both the Red and Blue Chinese and his tomb is a great shrine situated on the same sacred mountain as the tombs of the ancient Ming emperors.
As for bandit warlords today who are on the cusp of becoming legitimate kings, you have already mentioned Hezbollah and other factions of militant Islam, the history of their religion gives them an obvious path to political legitimacy.
Another cluster of underground bandits that might have a path to gaining real political power are the Narco gangs of south America, now operating on both sides of the Rio Grande. They have shown the ability to mobilize thousands of soldiers or "Sicarios", armed with modern weapons, riding armored vehicles, equipped with sophisticated communications, and so on and so on. They certainly have assassinated many government officials, so it's fair to assume they have de-facto arrangements with many more. Start with a local businessman, then a city Alderman, then the Mayor, then Governor, Senator, and so on and so on and so on.
After the election the criminal becomes the Chief of Police and the Chief of Police becomes a criminal.
Interesting - I have read (Dmitry Orlov) that during the collapse of the USSR, the societal breakdown resulted in many areas in exactly what you describe when you say that, if the Islamists or the drug dealers are the ones with the power to protect you, then they are the ones who will get your loyalty. Interesting also that, over time, at least some of those outlaw groups gradually migrated to positions of comparatively legitimate power, and formed the basis of new societal order. In this context, at least some of what we regard in the light of "good" and "evil" has more to do with practical concerns of survival.
Very much appreachiated your essays – THX.
It reminds me on the words of Col. D. MacGregor in his todays interview on his YT canal.
Foccussing on your topic :
- Disruption of the west European continent-, especially its military capabilities, and even its “decomposition” ( á la the old STASI method of “Zersetzung”) from within using cultural Marxism IS ONE OF THE TOP REQUIREMENTS for the so called “Great Reset” the WEF-DAVOS-Satanist Clique has envisioned. – Sadly, you stopped there and left that out of your sight. When a matter of such far reaching consequenses as a nations, even a continents, military is touched there are aims the major players have in mind. In politics nothing comes without an intent.
- As Klaus Schwab, the Mother-WEF-er himself, declard so loudly : they have in all of the + 200 nations on earth THEIR People installed in the power apparatuses. And not only did/ and does- their cultural Marxism work, it is also the syncronicity with which they operate : Be reminded of the outbreak of the so called Corona scam-pandemic : Nearly the same measures in all of the + 200 nations on earth at ONCE. THAT was one show of who-is-who. Meaning : after the end that you foresee there IS very much more to come. And if we all do not want THAT, well, then better get started sooner.
- One of the nightmare scenarios you described : the drug cartels as warlords to which people have to go if they wish some level of protection and safety on future planning. I I would rather call that the Mad-Max-World. Exactly this is what the WEF-ers would love to see : as they assume people would turn to them for “help” and stability. Thereby accepting all measures that would be considered unacceptable before.
- Result : I rather suggest that, instead of thinking through a possible instable world, it is advisable to erect now in everydays small steps a world that makes the national-& international superstructures and companies, the oligarchs, the finance giants such as Blackrock at. al. unnecessary. Have that alternate form of existence thought through and developed. And I am not only thinking only about all-day-cash-day, or going local and creating local currencies. Coming to military security : WE ALL, it seems to me, should – in these terms – talk also about the recent assault on the health of all of the earths populace by a handful of oligarchs who like to drastically reduce population by 15 out of 16. THAT is the real security matter.
Just for the interested reader : An answer to the question : “ How did we get here ?” is given by : Whitney Webb. Just look her up, for instance her recent interviews on the two volume book about the national security and – control state in the US.
Another factor to consider is wokeness in what is left of western militaries. The constituent ethnicities of Western nations and especially their heterosexual, male portions have taken notice of it - They are signing up in ever diminishing numbers. The US army was said yo have wound up 25% short of its recruiting target in 2022 and that includes all non-combat positions. The shortcome was probably more than 25% if considering only combat positions. The situation is exacerbated, of course, by birth rates in these ethnicties that are not only low but often catastrophically so. The consequence is less and less of a heterosexual, male, ethnic core to these militaries like the one that used to be their mainstay and backbone above all else. What Western "nations" end up with are oh-so "diverse" militaries and paramilitaries permeated by homosexuals, femininity, ethnic and religious tensions, gang members and the like, all to the point of outright subversion. It stands to reason that these militaries might break down rapidly if required to deploy in a high-intensity, high-casualty situation like the one currently unfolding in Ukraine. The West is getting away with it only by placing the load of going to fight and taking casualties on allies that haven't been affected by wokeness to the same degree - chiefly Ukraine itself, Poland, Romania, Georgia.
Good article. I have argued that it will be Russia as the premier state of the 21st century because Russia has energy, food production, resources, an educated workforce, an industrial base,. and a population with direct memory of suffering and privation China does not have liquid fuel energy, and limited land to feed the population. The United States and Canada also have the necessary elements, except for a population familiar with suffering, and unless and until that population understands they need to take a drastic change in standard of living nothing will happen. However, I think it is wrong to assume that the United States is unable to vastly retool all industry, and build such industry, if it so chooses. That is the thing that makes the United States so dangerous, this ability to suddenly shift when the need become clear. Pwrhaps that ability lies now in the past, but this ia a huge assumption.
Excellent article.
I only take exception to this statement: "It’s not simply that the industrial capability to produce weapons in volume no longer exists; it’s also impossible to recreate it without divine intervention, and it’s also impossible, as things stand, to see the re-creation of the massive organisational, technological and support structures it would need."
This is accurate only under peacetime conditions. Any of the Western nations, should they elect to fully mobilize, could get on the path to resolving the military industrial problem.
The issue is that Western militaries' focus is, to a very significant extent, also a hack to run up huge budgets without forcing societal participation and/or approval. Without this explicit support, what's left are LIC type "wars" and MIC-driven expensive toys.
Explicit support is needed to redirect energy, metals, manpower and money from population scale snivel gear to industrial warfare scales of artillery shells, missiles, rockets and bullets. The EPA wrote a report on the US explosives industry of 1971 - the height of the Vietnam war. The industry consumed 198 bcm of natural gas and the equivalent of 8.4 Terawatt hours of energy overall. 198 bcm is more than 3/4 of the Russian natural gas supplied to Europe in 2021, 50 years later.
This was certainly a very significant percentage of US energy consumption that year; redirecting this scale of energy into ammunition can't be done without materially impacting standards of living, hence the need for explicit approval and/or mobilization of the population.
A great assessment of the current situation. However, perhaps saying:
"Western aircraft could successfully gain and hold air superiority against, say Russia or China, provided the enemy agreed to limit the engagements strictly to air-to-air combat out of the range of anti-aircraft missiles."
Even without the presence of ground-to-air missiles, all US aircraft are now inferior to similar Russian and Chinese planes. in most ways The only advantage the US has over Russia is in numbers (- if they could get them to Europe in a war situation), and as for China, not even that. EU forces are hardly worth mentioning, they are even more disadvantaged in all ways.
US armaments are produced to make profits - Russian and Chinese for effective defence. There is a long and ever growing list of failures in US armaments. A sample would include:
F-35 - vastly inferior in speed, range, manoeuvrability etc. to any enemy it is likely to meet, and still not fully certified for combat, ongoing and increasing list of faults and problems, difficult to maintain,
F-22 - production cancelled early because of cost, low availability because of very high maintenance, unable to be easily upgraded, (B-1 bomber - similar)
'Littoral Combat' ships - unable to do the job intended, inadequate armament, 'literally' falling to pieces as they sail,
New super-carriers - lifts don't work, launch system doesn't work, etc.
Abrams tank - proved vulnerable to IED's in Iraq, turbine power uses much more fuel than diesel
etc. etc.
And see: https://orientalreview.org/2022/12/30/why-russia-which-spends-one-twentieth-what-america-does-on-military-is-militarily-more-successful-than-america/
Good analysis.. some comments
"air superiority" is passé...
"the industrial capability to produce weapons in volume no longer exists; it’s also impossible to recreate it without divine intervention" touché... I very much doubt He will intervene
I know it may be a flawed comparison, but the wests military capabilities seem to match Japan c.1940. Some outstanding individual weapons and units (especially in the Navy), but without the industrial capacity to back them up. In launching their Pacific War, Japan were entirely dependent on their small collection destroyers, carriers, super battleships and Zeroes to smash the western powers in a series of rapid blows. But once it turned into a war of attrition they had no chance whatever.
The Japanese were at least aware of this and has a sort-of strategy to avoid it (although obviously that strategy depended on Washington being weak, impulsive and stupid, which is entirely reasonable, but not an assumption you should base your countries future upon). I do wonder how much policy makers in the West are aware that other powers have strategies too, and are perfectly aware of the strengths and weaknesses of the US military (as Europes military hardly counts much these days).
Of course, it may be that the Chinese (for example) might be stupid enough to try to trade blows on equal terms with the USAF and USN, but I very much doubt it.
Just wanted to say how lucky I feel to stumble upon this blog. Your measured thought-provoking intellectual style is in stark contrast to the majority of information and analytics sources these days. Sometimes I find myself wanting to read you more frequently, but then I feel that if you were writing more frequently then it would not give me enough time to digest previous articles. Thanks a lot, good sir!
In addition to the factors mentioned, Europe also no longer has the industrial capacity to rearm; while Russian energy may once again be flowing westward, albeit via Turkey or other middlemen, it is unlikely to be in sufficient quantities to enable Europe to reindustrialize to the point where it once again could pose a military threat to Russia. All blessings in disguise, yet more protection against any inclination to military adventurism, we may hope.
Thanks again for an excellent piece.
While the external dynamics of Europe to come are intriguing, to me they dissappear into the background of the internal power dynamics you describe, where essentially rival paramilitary groups divided along neo-ethnic lines are the future. Highly technical security forces in the capital cores, Moslem gangs running the suburbs of most major cities and autochtone groups operating in the countryside. Most of the groups being to some extent financed externally and used to direct the politics of the failed states.
Ie, western Europe being transformed into Lebanon, with eastern Europe acting as the centre of power.
I do wonder if you yourself see this as the most likely scenario or if you have something to add as to the future internal power dynamics?
The US has neglected investing in the traditional "hardware" of warfare and instead focused its efforts on cyber warfare and genotype-targeted biological warfare. The COVID-19 plandemic and democide by "vaccine" was just a test run. Stay tuned, there are more, deadlier ones to be unleashed.
https://www.unz.com/wwebb/bats-gene-editing-and-bioweapons-recent-darpa-experiments-raise-concerns-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/