Thanks for yet another good piece. I always enjoy reading you.
What you describe (the reaction to a disrupting natural disaster), is something I had plenty of time to ponder upon, at the time when Covid first hit in early 2020. See, I live in China (Chengdu, Sichuan, at the time), so I witnessed first hand the quick and efficient reaction of the government when it became apparent that it was facing a major crisis. I won't go into details, as they are available elsewhere, although media propaganda in the West has done everything it could to put it in the most negative light. The fact remains that China essentially eradicated Covid within 8 weeks, and if it were not for the West's inaptitude in dealing with it, and the following inevitable emergence of variants, the whole thing would have been finished there and then. So, on a scale of 1 to 10, their response was, in my opinion a clear 10.
But for me, the whole thing brought back memories of another crisis I'd been through, in my home town of Montreal, Quebec, and that is the 1998 ice storm. Not a virus, but a freak meteorological event that brought non-stop freezing rain for 5 days in a row, resulting in a 10 cm accumulation of ice on the major power lines, at which point all their pylons crumbled as if they were made of matchsticks, something I witnessed myself with horror while driving to work that morning. So, suddenly, 2 million people were left without power, in the middle of January, when temperatures regularly drop to the -20 range, while the power lines had to be literally rebuilt from scratch, something which could only be done in months.
But those were the pre-internet days. Or, if you want, the pre-everything days. Not such a distant past, but no social media, no smartphones. As you said, a much simpler world. But a crisis nevertheless, which could have resulted in dozens of deaths. And yet, the (provincial) government of the time had an exemplary response, which I doubt they could have today, as witness the Covid disaster, where Québec ended up as the death champion in Canada, though they managed to all pat themselves in the back and, as you said so eloquently, point to our neighbours next door (the US...) as the convenient yardstick to measure their "success".
So how did they had such success at the time? Of course, one ingredient is solidarity. Québec is still a very homogeneous society, and has a culture of closing its ranks when disaster hits. The days of living in remote countryside villages, in a harsh climate, are but a generation away for many people. My own parents, still alive at the time, grew up during the great depression. In those days, of course, the Catholic Church was the social glue, though now its power and influence has faded and been taken over by the government. So, there was that.
But we also had that essential ingredient, which is competent political and social leadership. We were lucky that our prime minister at the time (Lucien Bouchard) was a charismatic (in the good sense), down-to-earth leader, who had gained immense public sympathy and admiration when he lost a leg, and nearly his life, to a flesh-eating bacteria right in the middle of the independence referendum campaign in 1995, only to quickly recover and courageously come back on the campaign trail. Plus he was a great communicator, avoiding the jargon and empty phrases of "modern" politicians. But he was also aided in his task by the head of the (state-owned) electricity company, who also turned out to be a fabulous communicator, and a very competent manager, who had made his classes in the private sector, running the major provincial gas company. So they would both appear together on television on a daily basis, where he wore what would become his trademark turtleneck (à la Steve Jobs), and they would communicate clearly, in detail, what the situation was. This was also, obviously, broadcasted on the radio, that antique medium that people could nevertheless listen to anywhere with a cheap receiver and only a pair of AA batteries, or in their cars if they didn't have any.
Other things were organized quickly and efficiently, like free firewood distribution, using the normally idle army, who was more than happy to be suddenly useful at something. Yes, firewood, because many people in Québec still have a wood stove, for enjoyment or savings, but also "just in case". Shelters were quickly setup in schools' gymnasiums, that were somewhat uncomfortable, but hey, it was better than nothing. Volunteers went door to door to check on old people, who were the most vulnerable as they would only reluctantly leave their home, at the risk of freezing to death.
And, amazingly, temporary high-voltage (735 kV) power lines were built in record time, with workers willing to work over-overtime, aided by reinforcements from our southern neighbours (yes, again, the US, namely Maine and Vermont). Yes, they have a strong union, and yes, they were well paid for their work, but they were also proud to contribute, and no complaint was heard from them for their ultra-long hours.
And so it was that within less than 2 months, power was restored in every home, the crisis was over and there were just but a handful of deaths. And, amazingly, NOTHING was politicized.
So, it IS possible to handle such crisis successfully. But, as I said, even in 1998, which is not so distant, the world was still technologically much simpler. Cash was still omnipresent, of course, but also simple and resilient communication media such as radio, and printed newspapers. And, amazingly, firewood!
Alas, I fear that this world is long gone. We are more than ever dependent on beautiful "high" technology, at the risk of being totally helpless if we lose it. And we also lost a competent, educated political class, that is not just there to enrich its resumes, and land lucrative lobbying jobs after a few years in office.
Someone above commented that nobody in the "West" is moving to Eritrea. Well, no, of course, because the "West" plundered all those countries a long time ago, and made sure they would never get rich afterwards. But I grew tired of our decaying world, and did move eventually to China, only to discover that it is one country that is already deep into the 21st century, and has a form of government that is in many ways superior to western "democracies", as was proven brilliantly with Covid, and with so many other achievements, like the eradication of extreme poverty. It's not perfect, of course, if only because humans are not either, no matter where. But instead of vilifying it, the west would be much better advised to learn from it. To think that it is "new" and "communism" is just ignoring the fact that good governance in China is a 5000 year old endeavour, and they had plenty of time to reflect on it and perfect it. Therefore, it has very deep roots in culture and society. Democracy as we know it, on the other hand, has become a dangerous dead end. The question is: can it be reformed in a peaceful and orderly way? Or will it just keep on self-destroying itself until civil wars break out and social order totally collapses? I hope for the former but fear the latter, however safe I feel here in this beautiful land.
A lot of different things crossed my mind while reading this. Some musings in not especially organized manner.
The collapse of a cosmopolitan seemingly "modern" society to tribal mess is hardly unusual in the "modern" world. Quite the contrary, we saw plenty of that in the past few decades: Lebanon in 1970s and 80s, urban parts of Afghanistan roughly the same time, Los Angeles, CA, in 1990s, (urban parts of) Yugoslavia roughly the same time, Iraq in the 2000s, and, perhaps Ukraine in 2010s and 20s. It's easy (and probably correct) to claim that these are the result of long underlying ethnic and cultural tensions that lay under the superficial veneer of modernity. But, to paraphrase AJP Taylor, that "explanation" is analogous to attributing any and every motor vehicle accident to the invention of the internal combustion engine and people's desire to go places fast. While indisputably true, they also offer no insight, especially if we are to understand anything beyond the gross generalities.
One important common denominator behind almost any descent to tribalism is the failure of the "impersonal" state and citizenship. The modern state operates, at least in principle, to provide every "citizen" with a minimal degree of service with some degree of dignity and respect, without prejudice. Now, this has generally not been the (whole) practice in virtually every society and not every "citizen" was equal (and there are plenty of instances when actual "citizens" were rare.). But, generally, a society could expand beyond mere tribal groupings and achieve power and prosperity only if it could command cooperation of multiple "tribes," whose members know that they see prospects of success regardless of their tribal background as long as they faithfully performed obligations expected of "citizens.".
When modern states fail, such "unprejudiced" provision of not only rewards, but even fairly basic services are no longer "unprejudiced.". Perhaps the state has become so incompetent (for whatever reason) that it can no longer offer such services. Perhaps the state has degenerated to become a tool wholly captured by some tribes that it's provision of services is nowhere close to being "unprejudiced.". Whatever the cause, the state that fails to reward "citizens" without prejudice cannot maintain their loyalty. If it fails to protect them (even if it is not necessarily captured by a tribe or a set of them), the erstwhile citizens become Shias and Sunnis, Croats and Serbs, Blacks and Koreans, etc. They turn to their "tribes" for protection in all forms--physical, economic, social, even psychological. Without "citizens," the collapse of the intercommunal society is only accelerated.
An important catch, though, is that a modern state that can provide more or less equitable service across tribal boundaries is not an easy or natural creation. A lot of effort needs to be made to make the "pact" underlying that state broadly credible. Tribes, on the other hand, are usually old and often "natural" groupings that require no compacts, negotiations, and other acts of commitment. It's not shocking that, in most societies, the residues of tribalism remain strong and return in times of crisis: people will aid members of their own tribes especially if no other resource is available.
So the putatively modern state is most threatened by forces of tribalism in crises of its own making: when it cannot compete with the tribes in providing protection and services. One temptation for the "defenders" of the state in crisis is to persecute the tribes, for daring to turn to themselves for "mutual help" and "collective defense" (which, admittedly, can turn ugly--it's worth noting that almost every act of lynching in the early 20th century was an act of "self defense" and "justice": locals turned on "outsiders" who were suspected of doing the community--ie the locally dominant tribe--wrong in some fashion after the "state" (the local law enforcement and judiciary) failed to deliver the protection they were due by meting out supposedly deserved punishment.). This is a mistake: the tribes are restless because they feel underserved and underprotected, usually justifiably in some fashion. Trying to suppress tribes without offering their members (NOT the tribes themselves) protection only strengthens the draw of tribalism. IF the state lacks credibility that they are not tools of some tribes against their enemies, application of such force is it's death knell--except, if the state had such credibility, it wouldn't have been in such crisis to begin with.
So what do we get when the state is reduced to exercise in PR without services? I'd imagine that, by that time, we'd have reached a society of tribes and not citizens. Of the rights accorded to groups, ie tribes, only affirming their predominant state, and citizenship stripped of its associated "duties ". Of course, these bring us back to your observations about "rights."
Something I wrote a year or so ago, following the collapse of the puppet regime in Afghanistan
"I've been thinking about this discussion, how to square the circle of actions and pronouncements which seem almost prescient, and those which resemble something you'd see from a team of incomparable halfwits, and it occurs to me:
<u>These people don't live in The Real World.</u>
The US in general and its elites in particular, in and out of MSM, government and the military, live in a world increasingly consumed by symbol, spectacle and abstraction. Not only that, but they confuse wish-fulfillment with reality. Decide that you're going to identify as a different gender, race, ethnicity, hell, decide that you're a member of a different species and woe betide anyone who doesn't go along with the charade. They might even get themselves "cancelled".
Hell, even the consequences of their (symbolic) actions are themselves largely symbolic. Melvin didn't get to put on a TED talk because someone dug up an old Tweet of his and now he's "literal Hitler" for a while.
For that matter, the truly Great and Good rarely even face those kinds of consequences. They can cause institutions to fail everywhere they go - but as long as they parrot today's approved platitudes, they glide from internship to government sinecure to think tank to academia to to financial services to corporate board to to consulting gig to MSM Talking Head, sometimes more than one simultaneously. Most probably never having had a 9-5 job, much less done farm or factory work, in their lives. These days, they may never even physically show up to work, ever, but their bank accounts rarely seem to reflect this.
They can even engage in outright fraud, but a big enough fish will only pay a fine, a portion of his ill-gotten gains. Meanwhile, he remains as free as a bird, and probably doesn't even face social ostracism. Last I checked, Jon Corzine is not on the naughty list of the people who matter.
Since results don't matter and there are few consequences for losing, even for catastrophe, everything becomes a matter of spin. All problems can be solved with better P.R., and there is no greater triumph than when some newscaster recites that glib talking point you just coined or when your FB post went viral, your instagram noticed by the right kind of influencer. In other words, winning is a matter of successful symbol manipulation. Speaking of spin, virtue signaling is an obsession, even unto rank hypocrisy, and the Davos Set think nothing of flying a private jet to a conference where they can congratulate themselves on their commitment to stopping climate change. Again, if there are to be any consequences, then those are for the little people to deal with.
Even in their dwindling contact with the physical world, the elites live in a world of wish-fulfillment. Push a button and whatever food or whatever else you want is brought to your door by some peon, paid for seamlessly by some electrons exchanged between banks that may not even have a physical location within a thousand miles of your location, if they have locations at all. Hell, you can even get laid via internet, just swipe right on the lucky profile. Everything is taken care of in the background, your credit card billed and airline miles accumulated automatically and the food or the girl just show up. Somehow. By Uber, I guess. Mundane questions like "<i>How do I feed the kids this week and pay for school supplies and make the rent?</i>" never come into the equation.
These are people who confuse their fantasies with reality to the point where they actually believe their own press releases. They give an order and it happens. They proclaim their puppets in Kabul to be wise and stable technocrats, their well-trained military striding from triumph to triumph and So Let It Be Done, So Let It Be Written. "So let it be written" - that's the word, that's all that need be done and the little people just somehow make it happen. For sheer lack of contact with the real world, these people make Louis XVI look like a medieval gong farmer or a pygmy tribesman by comparison.
Contrast the Taliban. Symbol, spectacle and abstraction mean very little to them. Doordash doesn't operate in their area and if a Talib wants a vegan option, he'll have to provide for it himself. It has probably never occurred to a Talib that he could cancel his enemies simply by digging up their embarrassing old tweets, sent under a long discarded Twitter ID, and he doesn't have time for that, anyway. He lives in the world of concrete and material things, he thinks nothing of killing and in his world, there are bullets waiting to kill him quite literally dead and transport him to a very earthly and very earthy sort of paradise.
You can't wish those things away, your credit cards are no good and probably <i>rifa</i>, anyway, and the bullet flying towards him isn't concerned with word games, his upcoming struggle session to root out unconscious racism and cannot be reasoned with or convinced to bother someone less important.
The world of American elites collided with the world of the Taliban and got its ass kicked. Biden and his crew cannot deal with this, because that kind of reality does not select for success in symbol manipulation, any more than skill at football selects for an ability to do math problems.
The clownish Western response to the COVID is similar. The virus can't be negotiated with, can't be bought off, can't be distracted, and is unimpressed with you and how highly you may think of yourself.
As you may know, I've seen quite a lot of both worlds, I've lived in barns and crouched under the table in the room where the decisions were made, so I think I understand both mindsets pretty well. I prefer freedom to regular meals.
Speaking of, I got some mice to catch, or otherwise, I will surely be going hungry."
Well, aside from the generalized collapse of state capacity (except for guard labour) I think there's a significant element of political directionality to all this. The state is very effective at suppressing anything which smacks of the left (Workers rights, a living wage, yadda yadda), they are actually quite ineffective against challenges that have the flavour of fascism - hostility to immigrants, nationalism. Examples being the US January 6 thing, the Trucker convoy here in Canada, the farner protests in Holland, etc. The French police were quick to attack the Gilets Jaune demonstrations, but Dutch police have been much more tentative with the hilarious manure cannons of the Dutch farmers.
Really, a lot of populist movements don't really fit the traditional left/right politics in any case, but it's clear that wherever you live - at least in the collective west - the state, writ large, is quite worried about angry crowds of commoners - and rightly so! There's a lot of anger, but it's incohate. I think the collapse / destruction / subversion of the traditional left plays a big role in this - look at the destruction of Jeremy Corbyn by the Labour party - yikes, eh?
What's the net result? My best bet will be some kind of quasi-fascistic populism a la the Trumpoids (or UK Tories, or AFD, or, well, take your pick). I think this will be exacerbated in Europe by the elite's need to keep up the war with Russia over the corpse of Ukraine. Combine that with a population starving and freezing in the dark this winter, and, well, laissez les bon temps rouler. I guess.
No, this didnt just somehow happen, and trying to help others understand the current status quo without referencing the elite secret societies that have plundered world resources for personal gain, infected governments, worship death & suffering (in others), and have had the eventual elimination of freedom--and most of the human population--in their gunsights for centuries, is an anemic essay indeed.
One of the first explanations, if we voluntarily put aside the idea that it is an assumed will of the governing "elites", is that the representative political organization of Western "democracies" intrinsically tends to lower the level of competence of the political establishment. Competition pushes elected officials to select and promote people who are less and less capable, not to be excluded by a better profile. This explains, among other things, the general rejuvenation of the political class. This inevitably leads to a general decline of the intellectual standards of state institutions, especially in teaching: in the same way as a bachelor of 1960, an enarch, promoted nowdays doesn’t worth what he represented at that time at all.
Now if we put this in the current context, it is partly what has made the co-optation of the political class much simpler, and much more permeable to the penetration of globalist interests. I seriously wonder to see almost all Western leaders wearing the WEF pin's. Just look at their site to realize that almost all of them, with a few exceptions, have been promoted by this organization. If I wanted to push the provocation, I would say that Trudeau, Macron and Ardern, to name a few, all come from the same test tube...
Seen from this perspective, it then becomes much easier to correlate the objectives and results of the policies carried out in these countries. Consider, for example, that Mc Kinsey has taken part in health policies of many Western countries, and you will immediately find striking similarities in the consequences induced by the Covid 19 crisis.
Make the same considerations on climate objectives, austerity savings, migratory pressure, uprooting and communitarization... and you get a clear reading grid for almost all crisis presented.
When you cross themes, you even get a self-amplifier system! Fires in France are a perfect example:
You need catalytic events to support climate narrative:
-Less and less resources are allocated to forest management, which greatly favors fire spreads.
-You reduce the resources allocated to firefighters by effect of austerity.
-You prevent unvaccinated professionals and volunteers from taking over service BUT, you authorize foreign firefighters (UNVACCINATED INCUDED !) to come and strengthen the workforce.
-Anecdote: if a firefighter wants to help comrades from another « county » with huge fires, he is only allowed to do so on his holidays...
You can draw the same patterns for health, education, justice, culture... COVID sauce supplement included…
To summarize, it is therefore not only political incompetence (which remains a factor of aggravation) but a will for fierce nuisance. Macron is not a failed politician, he is a mandated liquidator, a master one, like all his WEF buddies.
Last point if i may. I would not have compared yellow vests protests with the capitol event (even the « fenwick » episode), which in my opinion falls within a very dubious framework. On the other hand, Trudeau and the "truckers" had much more insightful similarities with the yellow vests and Macron. Both with the form of protests and the response’s violence.
Sorry for my « unacademic » english. Translated from french and quickly corrected…
A very interesting piece, thank you, but I take exception to you saying that gardeners are unskilled labour. I'm quoting here from a letter to the press that says it succinctly:
"Gardeners must keep up to date with trends, including anything from organic gardening to the latest developments in chemical pest control and fertilisers. They must understand a range of sciences, including botany, entomology, pathology, mycology, chemistry and genetics.
Knowledge of conservation and wildlife identification techniques will help gardeners meet biodiversity targets.
Artistic ability is helpful in designing flower beds, but a gardener must also know how to draw up and interpret landscape designs, often using Computer Aided Design software.
He or she should be able to use two and four-stroke machines as well as diesel engines, many of which now require specialist certificates to operate them.
It is necessary to carry out detailed risk assessments for every task, have excellent people skills and be a good administrator.
A gardener should be familiar with about 15,000 varieties of trees, shrubs, herbaceous and bedding plants, understanding their cultivation techniques, relevant pests and diseases, soil requirements and uses. Most professional gardeners study part-time for three years and many go on to do full-time courses for an additional three years."
Another great article. At some point, things will break down, as they did in the USSR. As in that case, you will get a measure of anarchy, with crime and social malaise. People will be driven to depend on their "core" communities -- the people they know--as in Paleo times-- not "tribes" but "bands" of people bound by similar survival issues. From there, a new consciousness emerges. In Russia, that shift came in the form of Putin, who was born into a poor family and street smart. The only leaders that can make a difference must be somehow Outliers. The collapse of any civilizational order is necessary for growth and renewal. The collapse of the USSR was necessary for modern Russia to emerge. The Cultural Revolution turned Mao's state upside down. But out of the wreckage came change. Xi Jinpiang spent his youth in a shitfarm in the country, away from party privilege -- and that experience informs his current efforts to reform the CPC and create an "ecological civilization".
The thing about the West or at least here in the New World is that the political class and the decision-making class is not one and the same thing. Seems to me that the political class is doing an admirable job of keeping the population engaged in politics and explaining and justifying the decisions of the decision makers, while the quality of life and work has been deteriorating in the West over the past several decades. That the % of voting population is so high in the face of anecdotal and academic evidence of a flimsy connection between the voter preferences and the decision-making class is a testimony to the skill and dedication of the political class.
So, the issue seems to me to lie in the decision-making classes. Who are these -- well, a) the central bank -- a private-public entity that determines interest rates, b) the heads of major investment banks -- money in the West is private, by virtue of lending to major corporations, the investment banks collect huge amount of data on the health of the corporate world and overall economy and determine who gets the loan and what kind of economic activity takes place, c) the heads of major corporations -- these bear hugely on the livelihood of workers, and most of all d) the largest shareholders -- these individuals and their representatives sit on many corporate boards and have a say on many issues. Taking the recent comments by Jamie Dimon in a recent - what was it - phone call - with major shareholders as an indication, the decision-makers have no effective response as yet to the challenge of the new Chinese imperial administration.
Marc Elsberg in *Blackout: Tomorrow Will Be Too Late*describes a scenario of electricity disruption! It is worth reading too. Thank you for your piece.
The comments are pretty empty of answers to the question, "What are you going to do?", thus substantiating the author's astonishment "how unwilling people are to think of even quite basic everyday problems that might arise as a result." Here are nine suggestions:
Learn nutrition, prepare your own meals.
Learn how to take care of and ride a horse.
Learn to swim and climb trees.
Learn botanical processes, grow gardens of edibles, fruits and vegetables.
Learn to shape woods and metals, draw and paint on a variety of surfaces with a variety of colors, paints, instruments.
Build things physical. Learn the math, physics, chemistry, biology, and electricity needed to do that.
Test every thought and idea mercilessly. Beat it up as much as you can, then beat it up all over again. Don’t stop until you’re exhausted or you have demonstrated to your satisfaction that the thought or idea is imperishable. Bring it out a decade or so later and beat it up all over again. Truth is happy to withstand any amount of abuse. Truth thrives in the furnaces of scrutiny.
Speak forthrightly at all times, in all places. Be respectful but not shy, obliging but not obsequious. And always the truth as best you know it.
Cultivate the impulse for impromptu improvisation in selfless service, leaving everything, especially results, to God. No, “I did that.” And by all means, no, "You/we/they need to . . . ."
I am interested in hearing what you think a proper COVID response would have been in, say, the US? Or if there is a country that handled COVID in a way you think should be an example for later disease outbreaks? The zero COVID model in China is about as opposite to the US response as you can get. Yes, it has been pretty effective at stopping the spread of the disease, as far as I know, but at great cost. I for one would rather be free to leave my house than be free of the risk of catching COVID. What are your thoughts?
The Western world is now so terrible that westerners are voluntarily relocating to Eritrea
Not.
The Western world is so good that Eritreans, and many other people,are desperate to join it.
The Western world does not.have constant warfare, foodmi security,.unremovable dictators, or universal corruption....the things that the would be immigrants are trying to escape.
The Western world could be better...Germany could benefit from french food, France could benefit from German policing.... all the old jokes.
Thanks for yet another good piece. I always enjoy reading you.
What you describe (the reaction to a disrupting natural disaster), is something I had plenty of time to ponder upon, at the time when Covid first hit in early 2020. See, I live in China (Chengdu, Sichuan, at the time), so I witnessed first hand the quick and efficient reaction of the government when it became apparent that it was facing a major crisis. I won't go into details, as they are available elsewhere, although media propaganda in the West has done everything it could to put it in the most negative light. The fact remains that China essentially eradicated Covid within 8 weeks, and if it were not for the West's inaptitude in dealing with it, and the following inevitable emergence of variants, the whole thing would have been finished there and then. So, on a scale of 1 to 10, their response was, in my opinion a clear 10.
But for me, the whole thing brought back memories of another crisis I'd been through, in my home town of Montreal, Quebec, and that is the 1998 ice storm. Not a virus, but a freak meteorological event that brought non-stop freezing rain for 5 days in a row, resulting in a 10 cm accumulation of ice on the major power lines, at which point all their pylons crumbled as if they were made of matchsticks, something I witnessed myself with horror while driving to work that morning. So, suddenly, 2 million people were left without power, in the middle of January, when temperatures regularly drop to the -20 range, while the power lines had to be literally rebuilt from scratch, something which could only be done in months.
But those were the pre-internet days. Or, if you want, the pre-everything days. Not such a distant past, but no social media, no smartphones. As you said, a much simpler world. But a crisis nevertheless, which could have resulted in dozens of deaths. And yet, the (provincial) government of the time had an exemplary response, which I doubt they could have today, as witness the Covid disaster, where Québec ended up as the death champion in Canada, though they managed to all pat themselves in the back and, as you said so eloquently, point to our neighbours next door (the US...) as the convenient yardstick to measure their "success".
So how did they had such success at the time? Of course, one ingredient is solidarity. Québec is still a very homogeneous society, and has a culture of closing its ranks when disaster hits. The days of living in remote countryside villages, in a harsh climate, are but a generation away for many people. My own parents, still alive at the time, grew up during the great depression. In those days, of course, the Catholic Church was the social glue, though now its power and influence has faded and been taken over by the government. So, there was that.
But we also had that essential ingredient, which is competent political and social leadership. We were lucky that our prime minister at the time (Lucien Bouchard) was a charismatic (in the good sense), down-to-earth leader, who had gained immense public sympathy and admiration when he lost a leg, and nearly his life, to a flesh-eating bacteria right in the middle of the independence referendum campaign in 1995, only to quickly recover and courageously come back on the campaign trail. Plus he was a great communicator, avoiding the jargon and empty phrases of "modern" politicians. But he was also aided in his task by the head of the (state-owned) electricity company, who also turned out to be a fabulous communicator, and a very competent manager, who had made his classes in the private sector, running the major provincial gas company. So they would both appear together on television on a daily basis, where he wore what would become his trademark turtleneck (à la Steve Jobs), and they would communicate clearly, in detail, what the situation was. This was also, obviously, broadcasted on the radio, that antique medium that people could nevertheless listen to anywhere with a cheap receiver and only a pair of AA batteries, or in their cars if they didn't have any.
Other things were organized quickly and efficiently, like free firewood distribution, using the normally idle army, who was more than happy to be suddenly useful at something. Yes, firewood, because many people in Québec still have a wood stove, for enjoyment or savings, but also "just in case". Shelters were quickly setup in schools' gymnasiums, that were somewhat uncomfortable, but hey, it was better than nothing. Volunteers went door to door to check on old people, who were the most vulnerable as they would only reluctantly leave their home, at the risk of freezing to death.
And, amazingly, temporary high-voltage (735 kV) power lines were built in record time, with workers willing to work over-overtime, aided by reinforcements from our southern neighbours (yes, again, the US, namely Maine and Vermont). Yes, they have a strong union, and yes, they were well paid for their work, but they were also proud to contribute, and no complaint was heard from them for their ultra-long hours.
And so it was that within less than 2 months, power was restored in every home, the crisis was over and there were just but a handful of deaths. And, amazingly, NOTHING was politicized.
So, it IS possible to handle such crisis successfully. But, as I said, even in 1998, which is not so distant, the world was still technologically much simpler. Cash was still omnipresent, of course, but also simple and resilient communication media such as radio, and printed newspapers. And, amazingly, firewood!
Alas, I fear that this world is long gone. We are more than ever dependent on beautiful "high" technology, at the risk of being totally helpless if we lose it. And we also lost a competent, educated political class, that is not just there to enrich its resumes, and land lucrative lobbying jobs after a few years in office.
Someone above commented that nobody in the "West" is moving to Eritrea. Well, no, of course, because the "West" plundered all those countries a long time ago, and made sure they would never get rich afterwards. But I grew tired of our decaying world, and did move eventually to China, only to discover that it is one country that is already deep into the 21st century, and has a form of government that is in many ways superior to western "democracies", as was proven brilliantly with Covid, and with so many other achievements, like the eradication of extreme poverty. It's not perfect, of course, if only because humans are not either, no matter where. But instead of vilifying it, the west would be much better advised to learn from it. To think that it is "new" and "communism" is just ignoring the fact that good governance in China is a 5000 year old endeavour, and they had plenty of time to reflect on it and perfect it. Therefore, it has very deep roots in culture and society. Democracy as we know it, on the other hand, has become a dangerous dead end. The question is: can it be reformed in a peaceful and orderly way? Or will it just keep on self-destroying itself until civil wars break out and social order totally collapses? I hope for the former but fear the latter, however safe I feel here in this beautiful land.
A lot of different things crossed my mind while reading this. Some musings in not especially organized manner.
The collapse of a cosmopolitan seemingly "modern" society to tribal mess is hardly unusual in the "modern" world. Quite the contrary, we saw plenty of that in the past few decades: Lebanon in 1970s and 80s, urban parts of Afghanistan roughly the same time, Los Angeles, CA, in 1990s, (urban parts of) Yugoslavia roughly the same time, Iraq in the 2000s, and, perhaps Ukraine in 2010s and 20s. It's easy (and probably correct) to claim that these are the result of long underlying ethnic and cultural tensions that lay under the superficial veneer of modernity. But, to paraphrase AJP Taylor, that "explanation" is analogous to attributing any and every motor vehicle accident to the invention of the internal combustion engine and people's desire to go places fast. While indisputably true, they also offer no insight, especially if we are to understand anything beyond the gross generalities.
One important common denominator behind almost any descent to tribalism is the failure of the "impersonal" state and citizenship. The modern state operates, at least in principle, to provide every "citizen" with a minimal degree of service with some degree of dignity and respect, without prejudice. Now, this has generally not been the (whole) practice in virtually every society and not every "citizen" was equal (and there are plenty of instances when actual "citizens" were rare.). But, generally, a society could expand beyond mere tribal groupings and achieve power and prosperity only if it could command cooperation of multiple "tribes," whose members know that they see prospects of success regardless of their tribal background as long as they faithfully performed obligations expected of "citizens.".
When modern states fail, such "unprejudiced" provision of not only rewards, but even fairly basic services are no longer "unprejudiced.". Perhaps the state has become so incompetent (for whatever reason) that it can no longer offer such services. Perhaps the state has degenerated to become a tool wholly captured by some tribes that it's provision of services is nowhere close to being "unprejudiced.". Whatever the cause, the state that fails to reward "citizens" without prejudice cannot maintain their loyalty. If it fails to protect them (even if it is not necessarily captured by a tribe or a set of them), the erstwhile citizens become Shias and Sunnis, Croats and Serbs, Blacks and Koreans, etc. They turn to their "tribes" for protection in all forms--physical, economic, social, even psychological. Without "citizens," the collapse of the intercommunal society is only accelerated.
An important catch, though, is that a modern state that can provide more or less equitable service across tribal boundaries is not an easy or natural creation. A lot of effort needs to be made to make the "pact" underlying that state broadly credible. Tribes, on the other hand, are usually old and often "natural" groupings that require no compacts, negotiations, and other acts of commitment. It's not shocking that, in most societies, the residues of tribalism remain strong and return in times of crisis: people will aid members of their own tribes especially if no other resource is available.
So the putatively modern state is most threatened by forces of tribalism in crises of its own making: when it cannot compete with the tribes in providing protection and services. One temptation for the "defenders" of the state in crisis is to persecute the tribes, for daring to turn to themselves for "mutual help" and "collective defense" (which, admittedly, can turn ugly--it's worth noting that almost every act of lynching in the early 20th century was an act of "self defense" and "justice": locals turned on "outsiders" who were suspected of doing the community--ie the locally dominant tribe--wrong in some fashion after the "state" (the local law enforcement and judiciary) failed to deliver the protection they were due by meting out supposedly deserved punishment.). This is a mistake: the tribes are restless because they feel underserved and underprotected, usually justifiably in some fashion. Trying to suppress tribes without offering their members (NOT the tribes themselves) protection only strengthens the draw of tribalism. IF the state lacks credibility that they are not tools of some tribes against their enemies, application of such force is it's death knell--except, if the state had such credibility, it wouldn't have been in such crisis to begin with.
So what do we get when the state is reduced to exercise in PR without services? I'd imagine that, by that time, we'd have reached a society of tribes and not citizens. Of the rights accorded to groups, ie tribes, only affirming their predominant state, and citizenship stripped of its associated "duties ". Of course, these bring us back to your observations about "rights."
Something I wrote a year or so ago, following the collapse of the puppet regime in Afghanistan
"I've been thinking about this discussion, how to square the circle of actions and pronouncements which seem almost prescient, and those which resemble something you'd see from a team of incomparable halfwits, and it occurs to me:
<u>These people don't live in The Real World.</u>
The US in general and its elites in particular, in and out of MSM, government and the military, live in a world increasingly consumed by symbol, spectacle and abstraction. Not only that, but they confuse wish-fulfillment with reality. Decide that you're going to identify as a different gender, race, ethnicity, hell, decide that you're a member of a different species and woe betide anyone who doesn't go along with the charade. They might even get themselves "cancelled".
Hell, even the consequences of their (symbolic) actions are themselves largely symbolic. Melvin didn't get to put on a TED talk because someone dug up an old Tweet of his and now he's "literal Hitler" for a while.
For that matter, the truly Great and Good rarely even face those kinds of consequences. They can cause institutions to fail everywhere they go - but as long as they parrot today's approved platitudes, they glide from internship to government sinecure to think tank to academia to to financial services to corporate board to to consulting gig to MSM Talking Head, sometimes more than one simultaneously. Most probably never having had a 9-5 job, much less done farm or factory work, in their lives. These days, they may never even physically show up to work, ever, but their bank accounts rarely seem to reflect this.
They can even engage in outright fraud, but a big enough fish will only pay a fine, a portion of his ill-gotten gains. Meanwhile, he remains as free as a bird, and probably doesn't even face social ostracism. Last I checked, Jon Corzine is not on the naughty list of the people who matter.
Since results don't matter and there are few consequences for losing, even for catastrophe, everything becomes a matter of spin. All problems can be solved with better P.R., and there is no greater triumph than when some newscaster recites that glib talking point you just coined or when your FB post went viral, your instagram noticed by the right kind of influencer. In other words, winning is a matter of successful symbol manipulation. Speaking of spin, virtue signaling is an obsession, even unto rank hypocrisy, and the Davos Set think nothing of flying a private jet to a conference where they can congratulate themselves on their commitment to stopping climate change. Again, if there are to be any consequences, then those are for the little people to deal with.
Even in their dwindling contact with the physical world, the elites live in a world of wish-fulfillment. Push a button and whatever food or whatever else you want is brought to your door by some peon, paid for seamlessly by some electrons exchanged between banks that may not even have a physical location within a thousand miles of your location, if they have locations at all. Hell, you can even get laid via internet, just swipe right on the lucky profile. Everything is taken care of in the background, your credit card billed and airline miles accumulated automatically and the food or the girl just show up. Somehow. By Uber, I guess. Mundane questions like "<i>How do I feed the kids this week and pay for school supplies and make the rent?</i>" never come into the equation.
These are people who confuse their fantasies with reality to the point where they actually believe their own press releases. They give an order and it happens. They proclaim their puppets in Kabul to be wise and stable technocrats, their well-trained military striding from triumph to triumph and So Let It Be Done, So Let It Be Written. "So let it be written" - that's the word, that's all that need be done and the little people just somehow make it happen. For sheer lack of contact with the real world, these people make Louis XVI look like a medieval gong farmer or a pygmy tribesman by comparison.
Contrast the Taliban. Symbol, spectacle and abstraction mean very little to them. Doordash doesn't operate in their area and if a Talib wants a vegan option, he'll have to provide for it himself. It has probably never occurred to a Talib that he could cancel his enemies simply by digging up their embarrassing old tweets, sent under a long discarded Twitter ID, and he doesn't have time for that, anyway. He lives in the world of concrete and material things, he thinks nothing of killing and in his world, there are bullets waiting to kill him quite literally dead and transport him to a very earthly and very earthy sort of paradise.
You can't wish those things away, your credit cards are no good and probably <i>rifa</i>, anyway, and the bullet flying towards him isn't concerned with word games, his upcoming struggle session to root out unconscious racism and cannot be reasoned with or convinced to bother someone less important.
The world of American elites collided with the world of the Taliban and got its ass kicked. Biden and his crew cannot deal with this, because that kind of reality does not select for success in symbol manipulation, any more than skill at football selects for an ability to do math problems.
The clownish Western response to the COVID is similar. The virus can't be negotiated with, can't be bought off, can't be distracted, and is unimpressed with you and how highly you may think of yourself.
As you may know, I've seen quite a lot of both worlds, I've lived in barns and crouched under the table in the room where the decisions were made, so I think I understand both mindsets pretty well. I prefer freedom to regular meals.
Speaking of, I got some mice to catch, or otherwise, I will surely be going hungry."
Well, aside from the generalized collapse of state capacity (except for guard labour) I think there's a significant element of political directionality to all this. The state is very effective at suppressing anything which smacks of the left (Workers rights, a living wage, yadda yadda), they are actually quite ineffective against challenges that have the flavour of fascism - hostility to immigrants, nationalism. Examples being the US January 6 thing, the Trucker convoy here in Canada, the farner protests in Holland, etc. The French police were quick to attack the Gilets Jaune demonstrations, but Dutch police have been much more tentative with the hilarious manure cannons of the Dutch farmers.
Really, a lot of populist movements don't really fit the traditional left/right politics in any case, but it's clear that wherever you live - at least in the collective west - the state, writ large, is quite worried about angry crowds of commoners - and rightly so! There's a lot of anger, but it's incohate. I think the collapse / destruction / subversion of the traditional left plays a big role in this - look at the destruction of Jeremy Corbyn by the Labour party - yikes, eh?
What's the net result? My best bet will be some kind of quasi-fascistic populism a la the Trumpoids (or UK Tories, or AFD, or, well, take your pick). I think this will be exacerbated in Europe by the elite's need to keep up the war with Russia over the corpse of Ukraine. Combine that with a population starving and freezing in the dark this winter, and, well, laissez les bon temps rouler. I guess.
Thanks for this. Really excellent piece. Just got through reading your most recent commentary at NC.
No, this didnt just somehow happen, and trying to help others understand the current status quo without referencing the elite secret societies that have plundered world resources for personal gain, infected governments, worship death & suffering (in others), and have had the eventual elimination of freedom--and most of the human population--in their gunsights for centuries, is an anemic essay indeed.
One of the first explanations, if we voluntarily put aside the idea that it is an assumed will of the governing "elites", is that the representative political organization of Western "democracies" intrinsically tends to lower the level of competence of the political establishment. Competition pushes elected officials to select and promote people who are less and less capable, not to be excluded by a better profile. This explains, among other things, the general rejuvenation of the political class. This inevitably leads to a general decline of the intellectual standards of state institutions, especially in teaching: in the same way as a bachelor of 1960, an enarch, promoted nowdays doesn’t worth what he represented at that time at all.
Now if we put this in the current context, it is partly what has made the co-optation of the political class much simpler, and much more permeable to the penetration of globalist interests. I seriously wonder to see almost all Western leaders wearing the WEF pin's. Just look at their site to realize that almost all of them, with a few exceptions, have been promoted by this organization. If I wanted to push the provocation, I would say that Trudeau, Macron and Ardern, to name a few, all come from the same test tube...
Seen from this perspective, it then becomes much easier to correlate the objectives and results of the policies carried out in these countries. Consider, for example, that Mc Kinsey has taken part in health policies of many Western countries, and you will immediately find striking similarities in the consequences induced by the Covid 19 crisis.
Make the same considerations on climate objectives, austerity savings, migratory pressure, uprooting and communitarization... and you get a clear reading grid for almost all crisis presented.
When you cross themes, you even get a self-amplifier system! Fires in France are a perfect example:
You need catalytic events to support climate narrative:
-Less and less resources are allocated to forest management, which greatly favors fire spreads.
-You reduce the resources allocated to firefighters by effect of austerity.
-You prevent unvaccinated professionals and volunteers from taking over service BUT, you authorize foreign firefighters (UNVACCINATED INCUDED !) to come and strengthen the workforce.
-Anecdote: if a firefighter wants to help comrades from another « county » with huge fires, he is only allowed to do so on his holidays...
And icing on the cake: 140 simultaneous fire starts in the same evening (statistically impossible - https://www.francebleu.fr/amp/infos/environnement/incendie-en-gironde-et-dans-les-landes-des-reprises-de-feu-criminelles-1660157900)
You can draw the same patterns for health, education, justice, culture... COVID sauce supplement included…
To summarize, it is therefore not only political incompetence (which remains a factor of aggravation) but a will for fierce nuisance. Macron is not a failed politician, he is a mandated liquidator, a master one, like all his WEF buddies.
Last point if i may. I would not have compared yellow vests protests with the capitol event (even the « fenwick » episode), which in my opinion falls within a very dubious framework. On the other hand, Trudeau and the "truckers" had much more insightful similarities with the yellow vests and Macron. Both with the form of protests and the response’s violence.
Sorry for my « unacademic » english. Translated from french and quickly corrected…
A very interesting piece, thank you, but I take exception to you saying that gardeners are unskilled labour. I'm quoting here from a letter to the press that says it succinctly:
"Gardeners must keep up to date with trends, including anything from organic gardening to the latest developments in chemical pest control and fertilisers. They must understand a range of sciences, including botany, entomology, pathology, mycology, chemistry and genetics.
Knowledge of conservation and wildlife identification techniques will help gardeners meet biodiversity targets.
Artistic ability is helpful in designing flower beds, but a gardener must also know how to draw up and interpret landscape designs, often using Computer Aided Design software.
He or she should be able to use two and four-stroke machines as well as diesel engines, many of which now require specialist certificates to operate them.
It is necessary to carry out detailed risk assessments for every task, have excellent people skills and be a good administrator.
A gardener should be familiar with about 15,000 varieties of trees, shrubs, herbaceous and bedding plants, understanding their cultivation techniques, relevant pests and diseases, soil requirements and uses. Most professional gardeners study part-time for three years and many go on to do full-time courses for an additional three years."
Another great article. At some point, things will break down, as they did in the USSR. As in that case, you will get a measure of anarchy, with crime and social malaise. People will be driven to depend on their "core" communities -- the people they know--as in Paleo times-- not "tribes" but "bands" of people bound by similar survival issues. From there, a new consciousness emerges. In Russia, that shift came in the form of Putin, who was born into a poor family and street smart. The only leaders that can make a difference must be somehow Outliers. The collapse of any civilizational order is necessary for growth and renewal. The collapse of the USSR was necessary for modern Russia to emerge. The Cultural Revolution turned Mao's state upside down. But out of the wreckage came change. Xi Jinpiang spent his youth in a shitfarm in the country, away from party privilege -- and that experience informs his current efforts to reform the CPC and create an "ecological civilization".
The thing about the West or at least here in the New World is that the political class and the decision-making class is not one and the same thing. Seems to me that the political class is doing an admirable job of keeping the population engaged in politics and explaining and justifying the decisions of the decision makers, while the quality of life and work has been deteriorating in the West over the past several decades. That the % of voting population is so high in the face of anecdotal and academic evidence of a flimsy connection between the voter preferences and the decision-making class is a testimony to the skill and dedication of the political class.
So, the issue seems to me to lie in the decision-making classes. Who are these -- well, a) the central bank -- a private-public entity that determines interest rates, b) the heads of major investment banks -- money in the West is private, by virtue of lending to major corporations, the investment banks collect huge amount of data on the health of the corporate world and overall economy and determine who gets the loan and what kind of economic activity takes place, c) the heads of major corporations -- these bear hugely on the livelihood of workers, and most of all d) the largest shareholders -- these individuals and their representatives sit on many corporate boards and have a say on many issues. Taking the recent comments by Jamie Dimon in a recent - what was it - phone call - with major shareholders as an indication, the decision-makers have no effective response as yet to the challenge of the new Chinese imperial administration.
Marc Elsberg in *Blackout: Tomorrow Will Be Too Late*describes a scenario of electricity disruption! It is worth reading too. Thank you for your piece.
I first heard about your essays at NakedCapitalism. I wanted to let you know you had a big shout out in the comments there today: PlutoniumKun, https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/08/links-8-19-2022.html#comment-3772972.
The comments are pretty empty of answers to the question, "What are you going to do?", thus substantiating the author's astonishment "how unwilling people are to think of even quite basic everyday problems that might arise as a result." Here are nine suggestions:
Learn nutrition, prepare your own meals.
Learn how to take care of and ride a horse.
Learn to swim and climb trees.
Learn botanical processes, grow gardens of edibles, fruits and vegetables.
Learn to shape woods and metals, draw and paint on a variety of surfaces with a variety of colors, paints, instruments.
Build things physical. Learn the math, physics, chemistry, biology, and electricity needed to do that.
Test every thought and idea mercilessly. Beat it up as much as you can, then beat it up all over again. Don’t stop until you’re exhausted or you have demonstrated to your satisfaction that the thought or idea is imperishable. Bring it out a decade or so later and beat it up all over again. Truth is happy to withstand any amount of abuse. Truth thrives in the furnaces of scrutiny.
Speak forthrightly at all times, in all places. Be respectful but not shy, obliging but not obsequious. And always the truth as best you know it.
Cultivate the impulse for impromptu improvisation in selfless service, leaving everything, especially results, to God. No, “I did that.” And by all means, no, "You/we/they need to . . . ."
I am interested in hearing what you think a proper COVID response would have been in, say, the US? Or if there is a country that handled COVID in a way you think should be an example for later disease outbreaks? The zero COVID model in China is about as opposite to the US response as you can get. Yes, it has been pretty effective at stopping the spread of the disease, as far as I know, but at great cost. I for one would rather be free to leave my house than be free of the risk of catching COVID. What are your thoughts?
The Western world is now so terrible that westerners are voluntarily relocating to Eritrea
Not.
The Western world is so good that Eritreans, and many other people,are desperate to join it.
The Western world does not.have constant warfare, foodmi security,.unremovable dictators, or universal corruption....the things that the would be immigrants are trying to escape.
The Western world could be better...Germany could benefit from french food, France could benefit from German policing.... all the old jokes.